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Working Paper
The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter
This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects ...
Briefing
A New Look at the Effects of Weather Shocks Over Time
This article examines the relationship between severe weather shocks and the U.S. macroeconomy from 1963 to 2019, applying a novel empirical approach to high-frequency data. We find weather shocks are growing in their influence on key economic variables, such as industrial output, unemployment and inflation.