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Journal Article
Taylor-type rules and total factor productivity
Gavin, William T.; Pakko, Michael R.; Keen, Benjamin D. (2012-01)
This paper examines the impact of a persistent shock to the growth rate of total factor productivity in a New Keynesian model in which the central bank does not observe the shock. The authors then investigate the performance of alternative policy rules in such an incomplete information environment. While some rules perform better than others, the authors demonstrate that inflation is more stable after a persistent productivity shock when monetary policy targets the output growth rate (not the output gap) or the price-level path (not the inflation rate). Both the output growth and price-level ...
Review , Volume 94 , Issue Jan , Pages 41-64

Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models
Wang, J. Christina; Sichel, Daniel E. (2017-11-17)
The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2023-12-21)
Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023) and obtain implied returns of 150 to 300 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for one ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Working Paper
Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany
Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Diegmann, André; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas (2023-11-07)
This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1382

Journal Article
Productivity growth: causes and consequences - conference summary
Wilson, Daniel J. (2006)
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the conference "Productivity Growth: Causes and Consequences" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on November 18-19, 2005, under the sponsorship of the Bank's Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Productivity shocks, investment, and the real interest rate
Olivei, Giovanni P. (1999)
I analyze the effects of a favorable shift in expected future productivity on the current level of investment and the real interest rate. In a standard RBC model, an increase in expected future productivity raises the real rate, but decreases the current level of investment for plausible parameter values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption. However, it is shown that such a conclusion is unwarranted when nominal rigidities are introduced into the analysis. In contrast with the flexible-price case, the favorable shift in future productivity can lead to an increase in ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-2

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2023-05-18)
We estimate the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth. Identification is based on a novel narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in appropriations for R&D funded by five major federal agencies. Using long-horizon local projections and the narrative measures, we find that an increase in appropriations for nondefense R&D leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity, and higher productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Conference Paper
Why has potential growth declined? The case of Germany
Siebert, Horst (1992)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
Drive to improve cash flow yields productivity gains
Fettig, David (1995-04)
Fedgazette , Issue Apr , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Unbalanced growth and the U.S. productivity slowdown
Bauer, Paul W. (1992-01)
An explanation of the slower trend rate of U.S. productivity growth in the past two decades as a natural response to unbalanced growth, whereby resources are shifted from sectors with high productivity growth rates to those with lower rates, such as the rapidly expanding service sector.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan

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