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Report
Manufacturing Wage Premiums Have Diverged between Production and Nonproduction Workers
A manufacturing wage premium is the average percentage difference between the wage a worker earns in manufacturing and the wage similar workers earn in industries other than manufacturing. Using standard wage regressions, we find that, between 1979 and 2018, the manufacturing wage premium declined much more for production workers (such as machine operators) than for nonproduction workers (such as managers or administrative assistants). As a result, the production-workers’ wage premium was 4 percent during 2015 to 2018, while the nonproduction-workers’ wage premium was 14 percent. The ...
Working Paper
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. ...
Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China
Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide.
Immigrant Workers and U.S. Trade Activity
States with higher shares of immigrant workers in the manufacturing sector are more likely to trade more in manufactured goods.
Journal Article
Tariffs and Trade Disputes
Cover Story of article on "Tariffs and Trade Disputes: How are recent moves affecting businesses in the Fifth District?"
Discussion Paper
Signs of a Slowdown? Evidence From Our October Business Surveys
After a few months of upward movement in the headline indexes of our business surveys, results took a downward turn in October. This was especially true in the service sector, where both current and expected activity deteriorated noticeably. However, despite what may be evidence of a shift to a slower pace of demand, firms on balance appear to be holding steady on hiring plans, at least for the near term.
Discussion Paper
The (Modest) Rebound in Manufacturing Jobs
The United States lost 5.7 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010, reducing the nation?s manufacturing employment base by nearly a third. These job losses and their causes have been well documented in the popular press and in academic circles. Less well recognized is the modest yet significant rebound in manufacturing jobs that has been underway for several years. Indeed, employment in the manufacturing industry began to stabilize in 2010, and the nation has added nearly 1 million jobs since then. Although modest in magnitude, this uptick in manufacturing jobs represents the longest ...
Journal Article
What’s Gone Wrong (and Right) in the Industrial Heartland?
The historically Midwestern manufacturing region, sometimes referred to as the ?Rust Belt,? faced another challenging period after 2000 when manufacturing employment declined by 1.2 million jobs. This Commentary investigates the relative economic performance of this region versus other US metropolitan areas during and following these job losses. The analysis shows that while unemployment rates have recovered in the metro areas of the industrial heartland, other economic indicators lag behind the manufacturing-intensive metro areas outside of the region.
Journal Article
Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees?
Manufacturing employment has declined since the 1970s, while the number of jobs requiring a college degree has risen. The shift has reshaped the environment in which many young people grow up and pursue their educations, potentially affecting the level of education they attain. This analysis uses the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth to investigate the relationship between industrial composition and the educational attainment of children whose parents have only a high school education or less. The results show that the educational attainment of these youths is correlated with their ...
Journal Article
The “Philly Fed Index” Turns 50 with Steadfast Success
What is so telling about the Philadelphia Fed?s monthly manufacturing index? Explore why financial analysts, economists, and the press monitor it closely for clues about the overall U.S. economy.