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Journal Article
Where Are the Workers? A Look into the Decline in Immigration
Rubinton, Hannah; Marks, Cassandra (2023-09-15)
The number of missing workers in the US labor force peaked at 2.58 million in June 2020 during the pandemic, but immigration restrictions are likely not the main driver of the high vacancy-to-unemployment ratio.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
New Findings on the Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States
Orrenius, Pia M. (2017-04-01)
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2016) report on the economic and fiscal effects of immigration included the first set of comprehensive fiscal impacts published in twenty years. The estimates highlight the pivotal role of the public goods assumption. If immigrants are assigned the average cost of public goods, such as national defense and interest on the debt, then immigration?s fiscal impact is negative in both the short and long run. If, instead, immigrants are assigned the marginal cost of public goods, then the long-run fiscal impact is positive and the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1704

Immigrant Workers and U.S. Trade Activity
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-09-17)
States with higher shares of immigrant workers in the manufacturing sector are more likely to trade more in manufactured goods.
On the Economy

Briefing
Aging and declining populations in northern New England: is there a role for immigration?
Sullivan, Riley (2019-07-16)
In hundreds of communities across northern New England, the population is aging rapidly and becoming smaller. The entire country is aging, but northern New England stands out: Among the populations of all US states, those of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont have the top-three highest median ages, respectively. The situation is even more extreme in northern New England?s rural counties, where the populations of the smallest towns generally are substantially older than those of the rest of the region. These communities also have seen the slowest, or even negative, population growth over the ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 19-2

Working Paper
Where Did the Workers Go? The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
Isaacson, Maggie; Marks, Cassandra; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Rubinton, Hannah (2024-01)
During the COVID pandemic there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. At the same time, during the economic recovery, the labor market was tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching 2.5, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this paper, we investigate whether these two trends are linked. We do not find evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market for two reasons. First, at the peak, we were missing about 2 million immigrant workers, but this number had largely recovered by February 2022 just as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Journal Article
A Welcome for the Talented
Steelman, Aaron (2018-10)
Book Review of "The Gift of Global Talent: How Migration Shapes Business, Economy & Society" By William R. Kerr, Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2019, 237 Pages
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 27-27

Texas Birth-Rate Decline Complicates Economic Growth Prospects
Lee, James; Orrenius, Pia M.; Pranger, Anna (2021-10-12)
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
The impact of migration on earnings inequality in New England
Jackson, Osborne (2019-06-01)
Migration plays an important role in the New England economy; absent immigration, the region?s population and workforce would have shrunk in recent years. Yet increasingly, immigrant inflows have been met with legislative opposition at both the national and regional levels, motivated in part by concerns that immigration may be an important factor driving the marked rise in earnings inequality. The research findings presented in this report, however, indicate that immigration accounts for a very small portion?only 6.0 percent?of the rising earnings inequality that the region has experienced. ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 19-2

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants’ overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
The Effect of Immigration on Business Dynamics and Employment
Orrenius, Pia M.; Abraham, Alexander T.; Zavodny, Madeline (2020-02-28)
Immigration, like any positive labor supply shock, should increase the return to capital and spur business investment. These changes should have a positive impact on business creation and expansion, particularly in areas that receive large immigrant inflows. Despite this clear prediction, there is sparse empirical evidence on the effect of immigration on business dynamics. One reason may be data unavailability since public-access firm-level data are rare. This study examines the impact of immigration on business dynamics and employment by combining U.S. data on immigrant inflows from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2004

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