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Discussion Paper
Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services
Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the public. While the conventional ?ex food and energy? measure is a composite of the price changes of a large number of different products and services, almost all models developed to explain and forecast its behavior do not distinguish between the goods and services categories. Is the distinction important? Here, we highlight the different behavior and determinants of goods inflation and services ...
Journal Article
Historical Disinflation Episodes: Which Falls First, Goods or Services?
What does it take to bring inflation back down to target? Historically, goods inflation slows first, followed by a longer period in which services inflation slows.