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Discussion Paper
What Happens to U.S. Activity and Inflation if China’s Property Sector Leads to a Crisis?
A previous post explored the potential implications for U.S. growth and inflation of a manufacturing-led boom in China. This post considers spillovers to the U.S. from a downside scenario, one in which China’s ongoing property sector slump takes another leg down and precipitates an economic hard landing and financial crisis.
Shipping Disruptions in the Red Sea: Ripples across the Globe
Recent attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted a major shipping lane. This analysis looks at the impact on shipping costs and global trade flows.
Trade Linkages in the Shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War
Skeptics have raised questions about the future of globalization. Could divisions over the war provide insights into the strength of global trade ties?
Report
Annual Report 2022: The Shifting Tides of Global Trade
The St. Louis Fed’s 2022 annual report examines the trends in international trade and globalization with comments and insight from Bank leaders.
Discussion Paper
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
The importance of the U.S. dollar in the context of the international monetary system has been examined and studied extensively. In this post, we argue that the dollar is not only the dominant global currency but also a key variable affecting global economic conditions. We describe the mechanism through which the dollar acts as a procyclical force, generating what we dub the “Dollar’s Imperial Circle,” where swings in the dollar govern global macro developments.