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Working Paper
Un-Networking: The Evolution of Networks in the Federal Funds Market
Using a network approach to characterize the evolution of the federal funds market during the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2007-2008, we document that many small federal funds lenders began reducing their lending to larger institutions in the core of the network starting in mid-2007. But an abrupt change occurred in the fall of 2008, when small lenders left the federal funds market en masse and those that remained lent smaller amounts, less frequently. We then test whether changes in lending patterns within key components of the network were associated with increases in ...
Working Paper
Slow capital, fast prices: Shocks to funding liquidity and stock price reversals
A V-shaped price pattern is often observed in financial markets - in response to a negative shock, prices fall "too far" before reversing course. This paper looks at one particular channel of such patterns: the link between a liquidity provider's balance sheet and asset prices. I examine a well-identified historical case study where a large exogenous shock to a liquidity provider's balance sheet resulted in severe capital constraints. Using evidence from German universal banks, who acted as market makers for selected stocks in the interwar period, I show in a difference-in-differences ...
Journal Article
Credit Unions’ Expanding Footprint, Is there any evidence new rules could cause small banks to lose market share to credit unions?
One of the main banking stories of the past 25 years has been the dramatic growth of large banks. Less well known is that credit unions have been expanding their market share during this time, too, especially after membership criteria were relaxed in 1998. While credit unions have been increasing their market share, small banks? market share has declined. And now, legal changes that took effect in January 2017 expanded credit unions? capacity to make loans to commercial customers, raising further concern among small banks that they might lose ground to credit unions
Working Paper
A margin call gone wrong: Credit, stock prices, and Germany's Black Friday 1927
Leverage is often seen as villain in financial crises. Sudden deleveraging may lead to fire sales and price pressure when asset demand is downward-sloping. This paper looks at the effects of changes in leverage on asset prices. It provides a historical case study where a large, well-identified shock to margin credit disrupted the German stock market. In May 1927, the German central bank forced banks to cut margin lending to their clients. However, this shock affected banks differentially; the magnitude of credit change differed across banks. Using the strong connections between banks and ...
Working Paper
Interest Rate Risk at US Credit Unions
Rising interest rates have prompted concerns about losses on bank assets, especially following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023. In this working paper, we examine whether US credit unions could be subject to similar losses as banks and analyze how their regulatory capital would be affected. We estimate that after realizing losses from assets that have decreased in value and not yet been sold the overall net worth of the credit union industry would have fallen by 40 percent in 2023:Q1. Unrealized losses were most severe at the largest credit unions. Nonetheless, the bulk ...
Journal Article
BANKING TRENDS: Credit Unions’ Expanding Footprint
Is there any evidence new rules could cause small banks to lose market share to credit unions? One of the main banking stories of the past 25 years has been the dramatic growth of large banks. Less well known is that credit unions have been expanding their market share during this time, too, especially after membership criteria were relaxed in 1998. While credit unions have been increasing their market share, small banks? market share has declined. And now, legal changes that took effect in January 2017 expanded credit unions? capacity to make loans to commercial customers, raising further ...
Working Paper
Liquidity from Two Lending Facilities
During financial crises, the lender of last resort (LOLR) uses lending facilities to inject critical funding into the banking sector. The facilities need to be designed in such a way that banks are not reluctant to seek assistance due to stigma and that banks with liquidity concerns are attracted rather than those prone to risk-taking and moral hazard incentives. We use an unexpected disclosure that introduced stigma at one of two similar LOLRs during the Great Depression to evaluate whether banks used LOLR assistance to improve their liquidity needs using a novel trivariate model with ...
Journal Article
Credit Unions: A Taxing Question
A tax exemption has helped credit unions since the 1930s, but some argue they should be treated more like banks