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Journal Article
How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?
We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for ...
Journal Article
Beveridge Curve Shifts and Time-Varying Parameter VARs
We specify a simple search and matching model of the aggregate labor market allowing for productivity-driven changes in match efficiency. This mechanism leads to shifts in the Beveridge curve that are broadly consistent with the pattern observed in the United States. We simulate data from the fully nonlinear solution of the model and estimate a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressions (TVP-VAR) on the unemployment and vacancies series to assess whether the shifts in the underlying theoretical model are being picked up by the nonlinear time series model. The results suggest that the ...
Briefing
Monetary Policy across Space and Time
Many major macroeconomic events have occurred across multiple countries. This Economic Brief looks at similarities and differences among the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States and finds that macroeconomic variables tend to become more interconnected during periods of financial distress. Movements in monetary policy are highly correlated across all three regions. In addition, inflation and unemployment become less responsive to monetary policy shocks over time.