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Journal Article
Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
A familiar old saw about the conduct of monetary policy is that it's like trying to drive a car while looking only in the rearview mirror. The idea is that policymakers are trying to steer a course that will keep the economy close to full employment with low, stable inflation, while their only knowledge of the road ahead is based on data about the past. ; As if this situation weren't challenging enough, the rearview mirror sometimes gives a distorted reflection, in the sense that the data policymakers see at any one point in time are often later revised. This Economic Letter discusses a ...
Journal Article
Inflation measurement gives us food for thought
Global food prices are soaring. Since February 2009, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization world food price index has risen roughly 67 percent, surpassing the previous peak in June 2008 (Chart 1). The last food price surge, from early 2007 to mid-2008, prompted riots in many countries; the latest rise has also fueled riots and may have been a factor in political unrest sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East.
Discussion Paper
Excluding items from personal consumption expenditures inflation
Core inflation measures constructed by excluding particularly volatile items from the price index have a long history. The most common such measures are indexes excluding the prices of food and energy items. This paper attempts to shed some statistical light on the impact of excluding certain items from the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In particular, I am interested in the trade-off between reducing shortrun volatility (relative to the volatility of the headline index) and possibly distorting the measurement of inflation over longer horizons. Some of the questions this ...
Journal Article
A comparison of the CPI and the PCE price index
In the United States, there are two broad indexes of consumer prices: the consumer price index, or CPI, and the chain price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCEPI. Because the indexes are similar in many respects, the inflation rates measured with them often move in parallel. There are, however, some important differences, which, at times, can lead to large gaps between CPI and PCEPI inflation rates. In 1998, for example, the CPI rose 1.5 percent, while the PCEPI increased just 0.7 percent. The discrepancy was even larger excluding food and energy prices: the core CPI grew 2.4 ...
Speech
Of moose and men (with no reference to Steinbeck)
Remarks before the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Texas, September 12, 2011 ; "It is incumbent on the Fed and other bank regulators to reduce the regulatory burdens that are inhibiting indeed, overwhelming community bankers whose business it is to lend to creditworthy small businesses."
Speech
Regional and national economic conditions
Remarks before the Morris County Chamber of Commerce, Florham Park, New Jersey.
Journal Article
The breadth of disinflation
In recent months, inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index has been trending lower. This slowdown, known as disinflation, has raised concerns that inflation might actually drop below zero and enter a period of deflation. An examination of the distribution of inflation rates across the range of goods and services that compose the index suggests that downward pressures on inflation are relatively high by historical standards.
Journal Article
Predicting consumption: a lesson in real-time data