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Working Paper
Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
This note examines labor market performance across countries through the lens of Okun?s Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun?s Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labor market policies in response to the global demand shock.
Speech
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 07.13.16 Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia
As an economist and policymaker, I appreciate hearing the perspectives of market and business economists. Just as the different views expressed by my colleagues around the monetary policy table help to inform my own policy views, the insights of economists like you help to shape my own economic outlook. The chance to hear perspectives from this side of the Pacific is particularly welcome at this time because we live in a global economy. Today, I will focus my remarks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. To help put the discussion into context, I will start with a brief overview of the ...
Businesses Are in Uncharted Waters
Inflation expectations in our April Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey fell to an all-time low (going back to October 2011) of 1.4 percent, plunging far below its next lowest level of 1.7 percent (most recently observed in February 2020). Perhaps unsurprisingly, firms have bigger worries on their minds. And our boss, President Raphael Bostic, agreed, noting on Wednesday that "inflation at this point is not something I'm particularly worried about."
Working Paper
Network Search: Climbing the Job Ladder Faster
We introduce an irregular network structure into a model of frictional, on-the-job search in which workers find jobs through their network connections or directly from firms. We show that jobs found through network search have wages that stochastically dominate those found through direct contact. Because we consider irregular networks, heterogeneity in the worker's position within the network leads to heterogeneity in wage and employment dynamics: better connected workers climb the job ladder faster and do not fall off it as far. These workers also pass along higher quality referrals, which ...
Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 09.28.16 Greater Cleveland Partnership Middle-Market Forum, Cleveland, OH
It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Since my arrival in Cleveland over two years ago, I have seen first-hand the important role that the Greater Cleveland Partnership plays in supporting the growth of our regional economy and I am very proud to serve on its board. Of course, as president of one of the country?s 12 Federal Reserve Banks I have a keen interest in our regional economy. As we gather in the lobby of this historic building, it is hard not to think back to a time more than 100 years ago and applaud the Congressmen ? yes, they were all men back ...
Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes
We document a new set of facts regarding the impact of referrals on labor market outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between different types of referrals—those from family and friends and those from business contacts—and different occupations. Then we develop an on-the-job search model that incorporates referrals and calibrate the model to key moments in the data. The calibrated model yields new insights into the roles played by different types of referrals in the match formation process and provides quantitative estimates of the effects of referrals on ...
Speech
The National and Regional Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, 11-30-2016; The African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania Annual Business Luncheon, Pittsburgh, PA
Today, I would like to focus on our monetary policy role by discussing my outlook for both the national and regional economy and my views on monetary policy. The economic expansion is now in its eighth year, and considerable progress has been and continues to be made on both parts of the Fed?s statutory goals of full employment and price stability. In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the economic expansion remain sound. As we gain more clarity about the policies that might be forthcoming, the FOMC will assess their effects, as well as the implications of economic and financial ...
Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Briefing
Will a Surge in Labor Force Participation Impede Unemployment Rate Improvement?
The labor force participation rate has been falling since 2000, a trend that accelerated somewhat during the recession of 2007-09. Some economists and journalists have questioned whether recent improvements in the labor market will cause non-participants to re-enter the labor force at a faster rate, thus offsetting job growth and impeding further declines in the unemployment rate. But recent worker-flow research suggests that this scenario is unlikely.
Speech
Views on the Economy and Monetary Policy: Government Affairs Breakfast Series, Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce, Dayton, OH
Today, I will provide my assessment of economic developments, and my outlook for the economy and monetary policy. The task before Fed policymakers is to calibrate monetary policy to this healthy economy so that our congressionally mandated long-run goals of maximum employment and price stability are met. This means making sure we don?t get behind the curve given the economy?s strength but also making sure we don?t overreact to the positive outlook. To my mind, that means if economic conditions evolve as expected, we?ll need to make some further increases in interest rates this year and next ...