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Working Paper
Option-Implied Libor Rate Expectations across Currencies
In this paper, I study risk-neutral probability densities regarding future Libor rates denominated in British pounds, euros, and US dollars as implied by option prices. I apply Breeden and Litzenberger?s (1978) result regarding the relationship between option prices and implied probabilities for the underlying to estimate full probability density functions for future Libor rates. I use these estimates in case studies, detailing the evolution of probabalistic expectations for future Libor rates over the course of several important market events. Next, I compute distributional moments from ...
Working Paper
The Optimal Monetary Instrument and the (Mis)Use of Causality Tests
This paper uses a New-Keynesian model with multiple monetary assets to show that if the choice of instrument is based solely on its propensity to predict macroeconomic targets, a central bank may choose an inferior policy instrument. We compare a standard interest rate rule to a k-percent rule for three alternative monetary aggregates determined within our model: the monetary base, the simple sum measure of money, and the Divisia measure. Welfare results are striking. While the interest rate dominates the other two monetary aggregate k-percent rules, the Divisia k-percent rule outperforms the ...