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Working Paper
The market-perceived monetary policy rule
We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and our estimation links the two effects. This enables us to estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations, and in so doing flexibly capture the particular dynamics of policy response. We find evidence that between 1994 and 2007 the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run ...
Speech
The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery
Presentation to The Columbian?s 2012 Economic Forecast Breakfast, Vancouver, Washington, January 10. 2012
Journal Article
The outlook for the economy and inflation, and the case for Federal Reserve independence
A massive structural budget deficit threatens the long-term economic health of the United States. But the fiscal imbalance won't necessarily fuel inflation as long as the Federal Reserve retains the independence to pursue its objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. The following is adapted from a presentation made by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Town Hall Los Angeles on March 23, 2010.
Speech
The outlook for the economy and monetary policy
Presentation to the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, San Diego, CA, February 22, 2010
Speech
The outlook for the economy
Presentation to Financial Executives International, San Francisco, CA, April 15, 2010
Speech
Outlook for the U.S. economy and community banks
Presentation to the Oregon Bankers Association Annual Convention with the Idaho Bankers Association, Coeur d?Alene, Idaho, July 28, 2009
Speech
Sailing into headwinds: the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy
Presentation to Joint Meeting of the San Francisco and Salt Lake City Branch Boards of Directors. Closing Luncheon. Salt Lake City, UT, September 8, 2010