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Journal Article
Negative Sentiment toward Spending and Declining Real Incomes May Meaningfully Lower Consumption
Cakir Melek, Nida; Pollard, Emily (2022-11-04)
Despite a contraction in real GDP in the first half of 2022, consumer spending has remained resilient. We examine a set of factors that have historically affected consumption growth and find that excess savings have boosted consumer spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as excess savings decline and economic relationships normalize, negative sentiment toward spending and declining real incomes may meaningfully lower consumption.
Economic Bulletin , Issue November 4, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere
Sly, Nicholas; Soderbery, Anson (2022-01-12)
Although ubiquitous, supply chain challenges are exerting more cost pressures on the types of businessesconcentrated in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region are less willing or able to adjustthe amount of imported goods they purchase even when procurement prices rise precipitously, as they have over the past year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue January 12, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages Have Limited the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Labor Market
Cohen, Elior (2023-09-22)
The labor market has so far shown remarkable resilience to the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy tightening. Severe labor shortages in the post-pandemic era have led many employers to hold on to workers and hire less-skilled workers—even though they expect demand for their goods or services to weaken in the future. As a result, unemployment remains low, and labor productivity has declined.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?
Nie, Jun; Yang, Shu-Kuei X. (2021-08-11)
During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2022-08-10)
Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 10, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Gasoline Prices Unlikely to Bring Down Inflation in 2023
Dillon, Francis; Smith, Andrew Lee; Cakir Melek, Nida (2023-02-15)
Gasoline prices can influence inflation both directly (by changing prices at the pump) and indirectly (by shaping consumers’ inflation expectations). Through these channels, gasoline prices have played an important role in the run-up and recent decline in inflation. Although gasoline prices have declined from their all-time highs, they are expected to remain relatively stable in 2023. As a result, gasoline prices are unlikely to deliver further reductions in either inflation or inflation expectations this year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 15, 2023 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?
Doh, Taeyoung; Foerster, Andrew (2022-12-21)
The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy has expanded beyond changing the federal funds rate to include forward guidance and balance sheet policy. Using these tools may shorten lags in monetary policy transmitting to inflation. Using a proxy funds rate that incorporates tightening from these additional policy tools, we find evidence of a shorter lag in policy transmission to inflation since 2009, though with high associated uncertainty.
Economic Bulletin , Issue December 21, 2022 , Pages 3

Journal Article
The Persistent Effects of the Temporary Tightening in Financial Conditions
Bundick, Brent (2019-04-17)
Market-based measures of uncertainty, a common proxy for broader financial conditions, rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018 but have retreated to more normal levels over the last few months. While the recent increase in uncertainty was brief, the temporary tightening in financial conditions will likely have longer-lasting effects on economic activity and prices.
Economic Bulletin , Issue April 17, 2019 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Tight Labor Markets Have Been a Key Contributor to High Food Inflation
Scott, Francisco; Cowley, Cortney; Kreitman, Ty (2023-04-19)
Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Disagreement among Households May Foreshadow a Rise in Inflation Expectations
Glover, Andrew (2022-06-29)
Households’ expectations about future inflation can influence realized inflation, so many policymakerstrack median household inflation expectations. However, the median changes slowly if households learnabout economic fundamentals gradually. A widening distribution of household inflation expectations mayforeshadow an increase in the median. During 2021, for example, disagreement about inflationexpectations rose months before the median increased appreciably.
Economic Bulletin , Issue June 29, 2022 , Pages 3

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