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Discussion Paper
An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies
In a previous FEDS Note, de Soyres, Moore, and Ortiz (2023), we conducted a comparison of household excess savings across advanced and emerging economies over different historical episodes. In that analysis, we found that the stock of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic in the U.S. was exhausted by 2023Q1, while other advanced economies were not expected to deplete their excess reserve until late in 2023.
Discussion Paper
Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view
The recent surge in inflation in many countries around the world and the fiscal stimulus provided in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in analyzing the potential role of large fiscal spending as a driver of price increases. In this note, we examine how fiscal support impacted the balance between supply and demand across countries during the COVID-19 crisis.
Discussion Paper
Real GDP and Productivity Measurement: What Do Macro Data Capture?
Since the publication of their 2021 "Blue Book", the UK's Office for National Statistics started to measure real GDP in the national accounts using double deflation. This methodological update follows the premise that "double deflation is internationally accepted as the best approach to producing volume estimates of industry Gross Value Added".
Discussion Paper
Real GDP and Productivity Measurement: What Do Macro Data Capture?
Since the publication of their 2021 "Blue Book", the UK's Office for National Statistics started to measure real GDP in the national accounts using double deflation. This methodological update follows the premise that "double deflation is internationally accepted as the best approach to producing volume estimates of industry Gross Value Added".
Working Paper
Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries
What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from 40 countries, we find that GDP comovement is significantly associated with trade in intermediate inputs but not with trade in final goods. Motivated by this new fact, we build a model of international trade that is able to replicate the empirical trade-comovement slope, offering the first quantitative solution for the Trade Comovement Puzzle. The model relies on (i) global value chains, (ii) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (iii) fluctuations in the mass of firms ...
Discussion Paper
Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective
The COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions. Due to a mix of government-imposed restrictions and voluntary personal decisions, mobility levels collapsed in March 2020 and subsequently closely tracked the successive waves of the pandemic.
Discussion Paper
Real GDP and Productivity Measurement: What Do Macro Data Capture?
Since the publication of their 2021 "Blue Book", the UK's Office for National Statistics started to measure real GDP in the national accounts using double deflation. This methodological update follows the premise that "double deflation is internationally accepted as the best approach to producing volume estimates of industry Gross Value Added".
Working Paper
What is Measured in National Accounts?
Most statistical agencies construct sectoral real GDP using double deflation and base period prices. When the base period price used for intermediate inputs is not equal to their marginal revenue product, such as when firms apply a markup, real GDP fluctuations become mechanically linked to variations in intermediate inputs. This is because these inputs generate profits that are incorporated into real value added. Taking this channel into account, we demonstrate that real GDP reported in national accounts substantially diverges from a theory-consistent "physical" value added. This, in turn, ...
Working Paper
Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement
We revisit the association between trade and GDP comovement for 135 countries from 1970 to 2009. Guided by a simple theory, we introduce two notions of trade linkages: (i) the usual direct bilateral trade index and (ii) new indexes of common exposure to third countries capturing the role of similarity in trade networks. Both measures are economically and statistically associated with GDP correlation, suggesting an additional channel through which GDP fluctuations propagate through trade linkages. Moreover, high income countries become more synchronized when the content of their trade is ...
Working Paper
Demand-Supply imbalance during the Covid-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy
To mitigate the health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide engaged in massive fiscal support programs. We show that generous fiscal support contributed to an increase in the demand for consumption goods during the pandemic, but industrial production did not adjust quickly enough to meet the sharp increase in demand. This imbalance between supply and demand across countries led to high inflation. Our findings suggest a sizable role for fiscal policy in affecting price stability.