Journal Article
Interpreting central bank independence in Mexico
Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (1993-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 6-7

Conference Paper
Real exchange rates and investment booms in Mexico
McLeod, Darryl; Welch, John H. (1991)
Proceedings

Journal Article
Understanding Latin American currency pegs to the dollar
Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (1992-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999
Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (2001-10)
Of the many countries that suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s, Brazil and Korea recovered most rapidly. This article analyzes the Brazilian recovery. William Gruben and John Welch focus on the freedom that Brazilian bank health gave to the central bank to pursue a postcrisis monetary policy that would settle markets, reestablish price stability, and encourage investment and the return of foreign capital. Brazilian bank health was not an accident; it reflected not only bank responses to precrisis changes in government regulations, but also to large precrisis interest rate increases ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 12-23

Working Paper
The credibility and performance of unilateral target zones: a comparison of the Mexican and Chilean cases
Feliz, Raul Anibal; Welch, John H. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9331

Journal Article
NAFTA: capstone and cornerstone
O'Driscoll, Gerald P.; Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (1993-09)
Southwest Economy , Issue Sep , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
North American free trade and the peso: the case for a North American currency area
McLeod, Darryl; Welch, John H. (1991)
Working Papers , Paper 9115

Journal Article
Is NAFTA economic integration?
Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (1994-04)
Most economists agree that trade liberalization raises incomes and living standards. To achieve trade liberalization, though, countries must sometimes first reach trade agreements. And trade agreements, as William Gruben and John Welch observe, may intertwine elements of both liberalization and protectionism. As an example, Gruben and Welch examine the negotiation process that preceded passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. ; Is NAFTA economic integration? Although some authors think so, Gruben and Welch believe that interpreting NAFTA purely as economic integration is ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Q II , Pages 35-51

Journal Article
The costs and benefits of fixed dollar exchange rates in Latin America
McLeod, Darryl; Welch, John H. (1993-01)
Chronic inflation and the importance of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for the domestic price level have led some Latin American countries to consider returning to a fixed dollar exchange rate. John Welch and Darryl McLeod examine the costs and benefits of real exchange rate movements and their relevance for the credibility of inflation policies in countries now contemplating free trade agreements with the United States. ; The authors discuss the experiences of several Latin American countries and describe the problem their policy-makers face when deciding to follow either fixed or ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Jan , Pages 31-44

Working Paper
Is tighter fiscal policy expansionary under fiscal dominance? Hypercrowding out in Latin America
Gruben, William C.; Welch, John H. (2005)
We test for hypercrowding out as a signal of market concerns over fiscal dominance in five Latin American countries. Hypercrowding out occurs when fiscally dominated governments domestic credit demands are perceived as so intrusive to a nations financial system that a move towards fiscal surplus lowers interest rates and increases growth. We sample five Latin American countries to test for these relationships. Judged by the results of vector error correction models, three nations test clearly positive, suggesting market concern despite their recent efforts towards fiscal balance.
Center for Latin America Working Papers , Paper 0205