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Journal Article
Deposit insurance reform
In the cover story, find out why some bankers are encouraging Congress to raise the ceiling for insurance on deposits to $130,000 from $100,000 per account. Opponents point out that in the wake of the last increase, the S&L crisis occurred.
Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?
We examine the value of feedback from the jumbo-certificate-of-deposit (CD) market in the off-site surveillance of community banks. Using accounting data, we construct proxies for default premiums on jumbo CDs. Then, we produce rank orderings of community banks -- defined as institutions holding less than $500 million in assets (constant 1999 dollars) -- based on these proxies. Next, we use an econometric surveillance model to generate rank orderings based on the probability of encountering financial distress. Finally, we compare these rank orderings as tools for flagging emerging problems. ...
Working Paper
Do depositors care about enforcement actions?
Since 1990, federal bank supervisors have publicly announced formal enforcement actions. This change in regime provides a natural laboratory to test two propositions: (1) claims by economists that putting confidential supervisory information in the public domain will enhance market discipline and (2) claims by bank supervisors that releasing such data will spark runs. To evaluate these propositions, we measure depositor reaction to 87 Federal Reserve announcements of enforcement actions. We compare deposit growth rates and yield spreads before and after the announcements at the sample banks ...
Working Paper
Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?
We examine the value of jumbo certificate-of-deposit (CD) signals in bank surveillance. To do so, we first construct proxies for default premiums and deposit runoffs and then rank banks based on these risk proxies. Next, we rank banks based on the output of a logit model typical of the econometric models used in off-site surveillance. Finally, we compare jumbo-CD rankings and surveillance-model rankings as tools for predicting financial distress. Our comparisons include eight out-of-sample test windows during the 1990s. We find that rankings obtained from jumbo-CD data would not have improved ...
Journal Article
Yielding clues about recessions: the yield curve as a forecasting tool
It's been used for years as a predictor of future interest rates, but these days, the yield curve is being used to predict recessions.
Journal Article
A third pillar of bank supervision
Risky behavior by banks is kept in check primarily with two tools: examinations and the rule that requires owners to keep a certain amount of their own money invested in their banks. Some people now want to tap the markets for further assistance with bank supervision.
Journal Article
Decoding messages from the yield curve
Journal Article
Navigating the brave new world of bank liquidity
By traditional measures, liquidity risk for banks is higher today than 10 years ago. But new measures-necessitated by new funding sources-tell another story.
Working Paper
The role of a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance
This article examines the potential contribution to bank supervision of a model designed to predict which banks will have their supervisory ratings downgraded in future periods. Bank supervisors rely on various tools of off-site surveillance to track the condition of banks under their jurisdiction between on-site examinations, including econometric models. One of the models that the Federal Reserve System uses for surveillance was estimated to predict bank failures. Because bank failures have been so rare during the last decade, the coefficients on this model have been "frozen" since 1991. ...
Journal Article
Loan quality in the Eighth District: worth a closer look