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Working Paper
Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries.
We evaluate the merits of the "supply-side" view under which inflation results from sectoral shocks, and compare it with the "classical" view in which inflation results from aggregate factors such as variations in money growth. Using a panel VAR methodology applied to data for 13 GECD countries, we find support for a multi-shock view of inflation: supply-side shocks are statistically significant determinants of inflation, even after taking into account aggregate demand factors. While oil prices are the dominant supply-side influence, other measures such as the skewness of relative price ...
Working Paper
Import prices and the competing goods effect
I use disaggregated U.S. data from 1978 to 1988 to examine the impact of changes in the prices of imported manufactured goods on corresponding domestic prices--the "competing goods effect." I use an econometric specification which allows for product differentiation between domestic and imported goods, and provides measures of exchange rate pass-through and economies of scale. ; I find that the impact of import prices on domestic prices varies substantially by industry, with statistically significant effects in nine of nineteen two-digit SIC manufacturing categoric:s. However, even where the ...
Working Paper
Union behavior, industry rents, and optimal policies
This paper examines the welfare gains from strategic trade and industrial policy in the U.S. steel industry, focusing particularly on the potential gains from capturing labor rents. I take into account product market distortions such as price-setting firms, factor market distortions in the form of union-created labor rents, and the presence of fixed capital and underutilized capacity in U.S. steel production. ; The existence of underutilized capacity means that firms respond to protection by reducing the share of labor in production, eliminating the rents targeted by the policy and thus ...
Working Paper
Trade barriers and trade flows across countries and industries
We use disaggregated data on trade flows, production, and trade barriers for 41 countries in 1988 to examine the political and economic determinants of non-tariff barriers, as well as the impact of protection (both tariff and non-tariff) on trade flows. We use an econometric framework that allows for the simultaneous detennination of trade barriers and trade flows. Our results are consistent with political-economy theories of the determinants of protection: even after accounting for industry-specific factors, nations tend to protect industries that are weak, in decline, and threatened by ...