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Working Paper
Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?
In this paper, we evaluate the effects of free pre-kindergarten (pre-K) programs on the labor force participation (LFP) of mothers. We use variation in pre-K rules across all US states, including income eligibility requirements in some states. To estimate the causal effects of access to pre-K on labor supply, we exploit the panel aspect of the monthly Current Population Survey between 2002 and 2019. Specifically, we look at the change in labor market behavior of women when their child becomes age-eligible for pre-K, controlling for individual factors. We find that access to free pre-K ...
Journal Article
Do Immigration Restrictions Affect Job Vacancies? Evidence from Online Job Postings
The U.S. workforce relies heavily on immigration. However, a series of policy changes and the COVID-19 pandemic led to a rare decline in immigrant arrivals from 2016 to 2021. This period of reduced immigration coincided with and exacerbated already severe shortages in the U.S. labor market, leading employers and firms to look for new sources of labor. At the same time, online job postings became more prevalent as a method of searching for labor. These postings provide rich data that could help reveal how different dimensions of labor demand change in response to declining immigration.Elior ...
Working Paper
Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?
We evaluate the effects of free pre-kindergarten (Pre-K) programs on the labor force participation of mothers. We use variation in Pre-K rules across all U.S. states, including income eligibility requirements in some states. To estimate the causal effects of access to Pre-K on labor supply, we exploit the panel aspect of the monthly Current Population Survey between 2002 and 2019. Specifically, we look at the change in labor market behavior of women when their child becomes age-eligible for Pre-K, controlling for individual factors. We find that access to free Pre-K programs increases overall ...
Journal Article
Lower Labor Force Participation Rates and Slower Population Growth Pose Challenges for Employers
As the nation recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, finding workers to fill job openings has beena headwind for many regions and industries. Although many researchers have pointed to the sharp declinein labor force participation rates as an explanation, the role of population growth over time has receivedless attention. We examine state and national trends in these measures and show that slower populationgrowth and an aging population may put downward pressure on labor force growth for some time.
Journal Article
Immigration Shortfall May Be a Headwind for Labor Supply
U.S. labor markets are currently experiencing unprecedented labor shortages. Reduced immigration flows in recent years have contributed to these labor supply shortages and tightened labor markets. Industries, occupations, and regions that rely more heavily on foreign workers have been particularly affected.
Journal Article
Consumer Spending Declines, Shifts in Response to the Pandemic
Consumer spending plunged last spring as the pandemic swept through the United States. Although spending rebounded sharply in the second half of 2020, it remained below year-ago levels due to persistently high unemployment, business restrictions, and continued health risks in social settings. In addition to the drop in overall spending, the pandemic has led to dramatic shifts in the mix of goods and services that consumers purchase.
Journal Article
Marijuana Industry Has Boosted Economic Activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
Since Colorado became the first state to open recreational marijuana stores in January 2014, the marijuana industry has expanded across the nation and to other states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, including Missouri, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Within the Tenth District, this expansion has increased commercial real estate demand and tax revenues and created jobs, but has also presented challenges for the industry and local communities.