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Journal Article
Financial globalization: gain and pain for developing countries
Economies around the world are becoming increasingly interconnected by the unprecedented breadth and depth of financial globalization. Developed countries tend to be most actively involved in cross-country capital movement, but in recent years developing countries have begun to participate in the process. ; This article focuses on the integration of developing countries into the international financial system. It examines recent developments and the principal agents of financial globalization as well as globalization?s effect on the domestic financial sector. Financial liberalization tends to ...
Working Paper
What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis
In the chaotic financial environment of Asia in 1997-1998, daily changes in stock prices of about 10 percent became commonplace. This paper analyzes what type of news moves the markets in those days of market jitters. We find that movements are triggered by local and neighbor-country news, with news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies having the most weight. However, some of those large changes cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news, but seem to be driven by herd instincts of the markets itself. The evidence suggests that investors ...
Working Paper
Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America
Spillovers effects, from one country or region to other countries and regions, have attracted renewed attention in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis of December 1994. This paper uses data on closed-end country funds to study how a negative shock in Mexican equities is transmitted to Asia and Latin America, and to particular countries within each region. Country funds allow us to study the transmission to other fund net asset values (NAVs) and prices, which are traded in local stock markets in New York, respectively. The evidence indicates that shocks such as the Mexican crisis produce ...
Conference Paper
The international financial integration of China and India
Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, these countries are large holders of official reserves, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China?s FDI liabilities). Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are ?short equity, long debt.? Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the last decade although, based on their level of economic development, neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. ...
Working Paper
Country fund discounts and the Mexican crisis of December 1994: did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?
It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the "front-runners" in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the "divergent expectations" hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican country fund Net Asset Values (driven mainly by Mexican investors) dropped faster ...