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Working Paper
Endogenous Option Pricing
We show that a structural model of firm decisions can produce very flexible implied volatility surfaces: upward and downward sloping, u-shaped. A calibrated version of the model is able to match many unconditional financial characteristics of the average option-able stock, and can help explain how, contrary to simple economic intuition, more valuable growth and contraction options are associated with a more negatively sloped implied volatility curve (i.e., a more negatively skewed implied distribution).
Working Paper
Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies
If firms can issue debt only at discrete dates, debt maturity is an effective device against the commitment problem on debt and investment policies. With shorter maturities, debt dynamics are less persistent and more valuable because upward leverage adjustments are faster and long-run leverage lower. Debt maturities that are relatively shorter than asset maturities increase marginal q, and reduce underinvestment. A decomposition of the credit spread consistent with equilibrium shows that the component due to the commitment problem on future debt issuances is sizeable when leverage and default ...
Working Paper
Does Hedging with Derivatives Reduce the Market's Perception of Credit Risk?
Risk management is the most widely-cited reason that non-financial corporations use derivatives. If hedging programs are effective, then firms using derivatives should have lower credit risk than those that do not. Surprisingly, we find that firms with derivative positions without a hedge accounting designation (typically higher basis risk) have higher CDS spreads than firms that do not hedge at all. We do not find evidence that these non-designated positions are associated with future credit realizations. We examine alternative explanations and find evidence that is consistent with a market ...
Decentralized finance proposed as alternative to traditional financial services
DeFi applications allow users to directly interact with each other to borrow, lend, insure and exchange digital assets without centralized intermediaries, such as banks and custodial exchanges.
Working Paper
Empirical Bayes Control of the False Discovery Exceedance
In sparse large-scale testing problems where the false discovery proportion (FDP) is highly variable, the false discovery exceedance (FDX) provides a valuable alternative to the widely used false discovery rate (FDR). We develop an empirical Bayes approach to controlling the FDX. We show that for independent hypotheses from a two-group model and dependent hypotheses from a Gaussian model fulfilling the exchangeability condition, an oracle decision rule based on ranking and thresholding the local false discovery rate (lfdr) is optimal in the sense that the power is maximized subject to FDX ...
Reciprocal deposit networks provide means to exceed FDIC’s $250,000 account cap
Because of their prominence, reciprocal deposits are important in the broader discussion of deposit insurance. Though they have the potential to increase banks’ moral hazard, they also bring increased trust and safety to the banking system.
Working Paper
Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No
We show that much of the profitability in equity option return strategies, which try to capture option mispricing by taking exposure to underlying volatility, can be explained by an IPCA model. The alpha reduction, relative to competing static factor models, is between 50% and 75% depending on the computing model and the type of option position.
Blockchain Technology Aims to Expand Role of Digital Transactions on Internet
While the resources devoted to blockchain technology development have increased dramatically the past few years, the technology’s ultimate success depends on whether blockchain protocols can interact with the current economic landscape and how that occurs.