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Working Paper
The production-side approach to estimating embodied technological change
We estimate the rate of embodied technological change directly from plant-level manufacturing data on current output and input choices along with histories on their vintages of equipment investment. Our estimates range between 8 and 17 percent for the typical U.S. manufacturing plant during the years 1972-1996. Any number in this range is substantially larger than is conventionally accepted with some important implications. First, the role of investment-specific technological change as an engine of growth is even larger than previously estimated. Second, existing producer durable price ...
Working Paper
Patterns of plant adjustment
This paper provides a description of the dynamic choices of manufacturing plants when they undertake rapid adjustment in output. The focus is on episodes that involve lumpy adjustment in capital or employment. I examine the behavior of variables such as capital utilization, hours per worker, overtime use, capacity utilization, materials and energy use. Finally I describe the observed patterns of productivity during those adjustment episodes and propose some hypotheses that seem to fit them. The costs associated with output adjustment seem to arise from building and destroying a particular ...
Working Paper
Production function estimation with industry capacity data
This paper introduces a new data set for the analysis of productivity in U.S. manufacturing. It consists of data on production and input levels when the plants in an industry operate at capacity. The estimates are consistent with those obtained using data on actual operations from the ASM. As an application, I use this data to estimate the rate of growth of technological change that is embodied in equipment capital. The estimates imply a larger role of equipment investment and embodied technological change on economic growth than is conventionally assumed.
Working Paper
Quantifying embodied technological change
We estimate the rate of embodied technological change directly from plant-level manufacturing data on current output and input choices along with histories on their vintages of equipment investment. Our estimates range between 8 and 17 percent for the typical U.S. manufacturing plant during the years 1972-1996. Any number in this range is substantially larger than is conventionally accepted with some important implications. First, the role of investment-specific technological change as an engine of growth is even larger than previously estimated. Second, existing producer durable price ...