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Working Paper
How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises
We investigate the output effects of severe banking and currency crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether twin crises (simultaneous occurrence of currency and banking crises) exist as a unique phenomenon and whether they entail especially large losses. Recent literature, mostly relating to the East Asian crisis, emphasizes the interplay and reinforcement between currency and banking crises, presumably making twin crises particularly damaging to the real economy. Using a panel data set over the 197597 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we find that twin crises do not ...
Working Paper
Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations
We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is ...
Working Paper
Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets
Sudden Stops are the simultaneous occurrence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows (Calvo, 1998). We investigate the output effects of financial crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a Mexican wave). Despite an emerging theoretical literature on Sudden Stops, empirical work to date has not precisely identified their occurrences nor measured their subsequent output effects in broad samples. Analysis of Sudden Stops may ...