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Journal Article
Where Are the Workers? A Look into the Decline in Immigration
The number of missing workers in the US labor force peaked at 2.58 million in June 2020 during the pandemic, but immigration restrictions are likely not the main driver of the high vacancy-to-unemployment ratio.
Revisiting Wage Growth in 2023
An analysis finds that nominal wage growth peaked in 2022. In 2023, wages increased but at a slower rate, and growth has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Working Paper
Where Did the Workers Go? The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
During the COVID pandemic there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. At the same time, during the economic recovery, the labor market was tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching 2.5, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this paper, we investigate whether these two trends are linked. We do not find evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market for two reasons. First, at the peak, we were missing about 2 million immigrant workers, but this number had largely recovered by February 2022 just as the ...
How Job Risk and Human Capital Shape Male Lifetime Earnings Disparities
Higher unemployment risk and fewer outside job offers appear to be key reasons why some men end up at the bottom of the lifetime earnings distribution for male workers.
Will Inflation Play the Grinch This Holiday Season?
Prices for typical holiday gifts appear to be rising at a slower pace than overall inflation, but the cost of holiday travel may be quite high.
Journal Article
Where Are Labor Markets the Tightest? A Tale of the 100 Largest US Cities
How does labor market tightness vary across the US, and how have labor markets changed since the pandemic? The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a common measure.
Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession?
An analysis of state-level economic growth suggests that a certain number of contracting state economies could signal the start of a national recession.
Job Mobility Patterns and Lifetime Earnings Disparities among Male Workers
Examining long-term wage growth of male workers, an analysis finds that job mobility can provide insights into the disparities in lifetime earnings distribution.
Unemployment and Wage Inflation: Recent Findings Using State Data
Both state-level data and individual-level data suggest that periods with low unemployment rates are also periods with more rapid wage growth, an analysis finds.
The Labor Effects of Work from Home on Workers with a Disability
Work from home appears to have improved labor outcomes for workers with a disability in terms of unemployment, labor force participation, and wages and hours worked.