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Working Paper
The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden
Household debt is at a record high relative to disposable income. Some analysts are concerned that this unprecedented level of debt might pose a risk to the financial health of American households and ultimately lead them to curtail their spending. In this paper, I summarize some of the relevant facts concerning the growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden, outline the results of the research that has been conducted in this area, and look at the questions that might be answered with additional research.
Working Paper
Disentangling the wealth effect: a cohort analysis of household saving in the 1990s
In the U.S., household net worth rose substantially in the latter half of the 1990s and the personal saving rate dropped sharply. Researchers do not agree about just what behavior links these two events, or how to interpret the negative correlation between wealth and the saving rate over a longer time span. In this paper, we combine household-level data from the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances with quarterly, aggregate data from the Flow of Funds Accounts to estimate net worth and saving for different cohorts of households in the 1990s. We find that the groups of households whose ...
Working Paper
Consumption, debt and portfolio choice: testing the effect of bankruptcy law
Consumer bankruptcy laws, which vary across states and over time, permit debtors to keep assets below a statutory exemption while debts are forgiven. High exemptions distort household portfolio decisions and tempt households to default on debts, but they also provide a crude form of consumption insurance. We combine information on state-level bankruptcy laws with the Consumer Expenditure Survey from 1984-1999. We find that higher exemptions are associated with (1) higher bankruptcy rates, (2) households that are more likely to simultaneously hold low-return liquid assets and owe high-cost ...
Working Paper
Does stock market wealth matter for consumption?
This paper explores the household behavior that underlies the link between wealth and consumption at the aggregate level. One possibility is that changes in wealth directly cause changes in consumption through their effect on households' contemporaneous budget sets; another possibility is that they merely predict changes in consumption because they signal changes in future income. Based on analysis of household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we find that direct wealth effects begin to show up relatively quickly and continue to boost consumption growth for a number of ...
Journal Article
The effects of recent mortgage refinancing
Rising home prices and generally falling interest rates in recent years, together with a desire to convert the accumulated equity in their homes into spendable funds, have prompted many homeowners to refinance their mortgages. In the spring of 1999, the Federal Reserve surveyed consumers to determine the extent of refinancing, the extent to which refinancing homeowners "cashed-out" some of their equity when they refinanced, how much equity they took out, and how they spent the funds. Survey results suggest that cash-out refinancings in 1998 and early 1999 likely boosted consumption spending a ...