Search Results
Showing results 1 to 3 of approximately 3.
(refine search)
Can Economists Predict Recessions?
An analysis of 55 years of data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests that quarter-ahead recession forecasts are fairly accurate but still have a great deal of uncertainty.
Working Paper
How Much Should We Trust Regional-Exposure Designs?
Many prominent studies in macroeconomics, labor, and trade use panel data on regions to identify the local effects of aggregate shocks. These studies construct regional-exposure instruments as an observed aggregate shock times an observed regional exposure to that shock. We argue that the most economically plausible source of identification in these settings is uncorrelatedness of observed and unobserved aggregate shocks. Even when the regression estimator is consistent, we show that inference is complicated by cross-regional residual correlations induced by unobserved aggregate shocks. We ...
How Do Firms Differ in Rich and Poor Countries?
Firms in countries with high GDP per capita tend to have larger and more highly educated workforces and to be organized differently than firms in poor countries.