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Working Paper
Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-Rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations
We introduce a form of boundedly-rational expectations into a standard asset-pricing model of the exchange rate, where cross-country interest rate differentials are governed by Taylor-type rules. We postulate that agents augment a lagged-information random walk forecast with a term that relates to news about Taylor-rule fundamentals. We solve for a ?consistent expectations equilibrium,? in which the coefficient on fundamental news in the agent?s forecast rule is pinned down using the moments of observable data. The forecast errors observed by the agent are close to white noise, making it di ...
Working Paper
Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?
We use a consumption based asset pricing model to show that the predictability of excess returns on risky assets can arise from only two sources: (1) stochastic volatility of fundamental variables, or (2) departures from rational expectations that give rise to predictable investor forecast errors and market inefficiency. While controlling for stochastic volatility, we find that a variable which measures non-fundamental noise in the Treasury yield curve helps to predict 1-month-ahead excess stock returns, but only during sample periods that include the Great Recession. For these sample ...