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Working Paper
Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing
China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, ...
Working Paper
Disaster Risk and Asset Returns : An International Perspective
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual international asset pricing implications. Given consumption pricing moments, disaster risk cannot explain the range of equity premia and government bill rates nor the high degree of equity return correlation found in the data. Moreover, the ...
Working Paper
How Can Asset Prices Value Exchange Rate Wedges?
When available financial securities allow investors to optimally diversify risk across countries, standard theory implies that exchange rates should reflect this behavior. However, exchange rates observed in the data deviate from these predictions. In this paper, we develop a framework to value the welfare costs of these exchange rate wedges, as disciplined by asset returns. This framework applies to a general class of asset pricing and exchange rate models. We further decompose the value of these wedges into components, showing that the ability of goods markets to respond to financial ...
Working Paper
The Effect of Foreign Lending on Domestic Loans : An Analysis of U.S. Global Banks
This paper examines the effect of foreign lending on the domestic lending for US global banks. We show that greater foreign loan growth complements, rather than detracts from, domestic commercial lending. Exploiting a confidential data (FFIEC 009) on international loan exposure of US banks, we estimate that a 1% increase in foreign office lending is associated with a 0.6% growth in domestic commercial lending, suggesting complementarity across these lending channels. However, when capital raising is tight during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, we find that foreign lending did come at the ...