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Working Paper
What determines bilateral trade flows?
This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of international trade, where "robustness" is tested using three popular empirical methods. The paper is frankly atheoretical: our goal is solely to establish statistically robust relationships. Along the way, however, we relate our results to the empirical results obtained by prior researchers and to the received theory of international trade. We find that robust variables include a measure of the scale of factor endowments; fixed exchange rates; the level of development; and current account restrictions. Variables that are ...
Journal Article
Is there evidence of the new economy in U.S. GDP data?
This article tests whether the trend growth rate of U.S. GDP changed significantly over the "new economy" period from 1996 to 2003. Based on estimates from widely used methods of trend/cycle decomposition, the author finds that the trend growth rate of GDP was not significantly higher over this period. This suggests that the U.S. was the same old economy in the latter half of the 1990s.
Journal Article
Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?
This article explains the recent high levels of residential investment and rates of homeownership.
Working Paper
North-South business cycles
This paper shows that the economic activity of the industrial North and developing South move together - when the North is above its trend, the South tends to be above its trend. We refer to this phenomenon as the "North-South business cycle." The paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade that captures many cyclical features of North-South trade and production data. In particular, the high volatility of North-South terms of trade, and strong comovement of Northern and Southern activity. On the basis of this model we argue that North-South business cycles ...
Working Paper
What can account for fluctuations in the terms of trade?
Fluctuations in the terms of trade the price of a country?s exports relative to the price of its imports are a source of perennial concern to policymakers in developing countries and industrialized nations alike. Terms of trade growth is extremely volatile and can lead to sudden changes in a country?s economic health. This paper seeks to understand the sources of fluctuations in the terms of trade. We decompose a country?s terms of trade volatility into a component stemming from differences in the composition of import baskets and export baskets, which we define as a goods price effect, and a ...
Journal Article
Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles
Many commentators are skeptical about the long-run viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU). This article compares the EMU with a well-functioning currency union, the U.S., and finds that they are similar based on key criteria. On the basis of this analysis, the EMU may be as viable as the U.S. monetary union.
Newsletter
Is the U.S. current account sustainable?
This article clearly defines what economists mean by a sustainable current account. The author provides an estimate of the sustainable current account balance for the U.S. economy and assesses the implications of this estimate for the existing current account and level of foreign indebtedness.
Journal Article
Evidence of the North--South business cycle
This article examines the fluctuations of two regional economies: the developed, industrial goods exporting countries of the world ("North") and the developing, commodity exporting countries ("South"). The author finds that these very different regions have similar business cycle characteristics and that cyclical fluctuations in one region are positively correlated with fluctuations in other. Preliminary data analysis suggests that cyclical fluctuations in the South are caused by fluctuations that originate in the North.
Journal Article
Understanding U.S. regional cyclical comovement: How important are spillovers and common shocks?
This article develops a statistical model to study the business cycles of the eight U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis regions. The author shows that the high level of cyclical comovement among per capita incomes of U.S. regions is the byproduct of common shocks to the regions rather than shocks that originate in one region and subsequently spill over to other regions.