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Journal Article
Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve
For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening?the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt?lasts about a year and is relatively small. After the first year, the impact on large banks? profitability becomes positive; for smaller institutions, it stays negative and becomes larger. Recent yield-curve flattening is likely to more strongly affect smaller banks, reducing their profitability.
The Paycheck Protection Program: Conditional Success or Unconditional Failure?
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act became law in March 2020, marking an initial federal response to the emerging economic disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Working Paper
Paycheck Protection Program: County-Level Determinants and Effect on Unemployment
This paper uses U.S. county-level data to study the determinants and effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The paper first overviews the timeline and institutional aspects of the PPP, implemented in the second quarter of 2020 and worth about $669 billion in forgivable small business loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA). It then studies the determinants of the county-level ratios of PPP loans per job lost during the original unemployment surge associated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late March 2020 and finds that it does not appear to be a major ...
Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market
Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.
Discussion Paper
The Pandemic's Impact on Credit Risk: Averted or Delayed?
The COVID-19 recession resulted in historic unemployment and a significant shock to much of the service sector. Despite these macroeconomic challenges, banks' risk-based capital buffers remain high and the number of bank failures remains low. Government relief programs, including the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, both directly and indirectly helped stabilize bank balance sheets during the crisis.