Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 18.
(refine search)
Journal Article
“Stress Testing” Banks on Commercial Real Estate
Recent research tests the effects of a large (hypothetical) drop in commercial real estate prices: Banks most affected would be small and the resulting noncompliance would apply to a small fraction of assets in the US banking system.
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Working Paper
Pandemic labor force participation and net worth fluctuations
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2% as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 pp below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This paper argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we show that changes in net ...
Journal Article
Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations
The US labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2 percent as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This article argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we ...
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on Stock Prices
Since the two countries are global suppliers of raw materials, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a commodity price shock. Which stocks were most sensitive to it?
Retirements, Net Worth, and the Fall and Rise of Labor Force Participation
New research suggests that declining asset values in 2022 may have prompted older workers to return to the labor force.
Journal Article
Where Do You Keep Your Liquid Wealth—Bank Deposits or T-bills?
The beginning of 2022 saw bank deposits, such as CDs, paying similar interest rates to Treasury bills, but they now pay almost 4% less.
Residential Segregation and the Black-White College Gap
Using an economic model, researchers find that racial wage disparities, the amenity externality and racial barriers to moving could help explain the Black-white gap in college attainment.
Marginal vs. Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have risen sharply, but the impact on the typical borrower can be better gauged if one considers the average rate rather than the current rate.
The Many Interest Rates in 2022
The one-year Treasury rate and the five-year, five-year forward rate on Treasuries told different stories in 2022, depending on whether one looked at nominal rates or real rates.