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Journal Article
Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence
Following the 1995-2000 period of more rapid output growth and lower inflation in the United States, economists have strenuously debated whether improvements in economic performance can be sustained. The recession that began in March 2001 intensified the debate, and the economic impacts of the events of September 11 have yet to be fully understood. Both factors add to the considerable uncertainties about future growth that currently face decision makers in both the public and private sectors. ; In this article, the authors analyze the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 ...
Report
A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence
It is now widely recognized that information technology (IT) was critical to the dramatic acceleration of U.S. labor productivity growth in the mid-1990s. This paper traces the evolution of productivity estimates to document how and when this perception emerged. Early studies concluded that IT was relatively unimportant. It was only after the massive IT investment boom of the late 1990s that this investment and underlying productivity increases in the IT-producing sectors were identified as important sources of growth. Although IT has diminished in significance since the dot-com crash of ...
Conference Paper
U. S. labor supply and demand in the long run
In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand in considerable detail in order to capture the enormous heterogeneity of the labor force and its evolution over the next 25 years. We represent labor supplies for a large number of demographic groups as responses to prices of leisure and consumption goods and services. The price of leisure is an after-tax wage rate, while the final prices of goods and services reflect the supply prices of the industries that produce them. By including demographic characteristics among the determinants of household preferences, we incorporate the expected ...
Monograph
U. S. labor supply and demand in the long run
In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand in considerable detail in order to capture the enormous heterogeneity of the labor force and its evolution over the next 25 years. We represent labor supplies for a large number of demographic groups as responses to prices of leisure and consumption goods and services. The price of leisure is an after-tax wage rate, while the final prices of goods and services reflect the supply prices of the industries that produce them. By including demographic characteristics among the determinants of household preferences, we incorporate the expected ...
Journal Article
Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?
U.S. productivity growth has accelerated in recent years, despite a series of negative economic shocks. An analysis of the sources of this growth over the 1995-2003 period suggests that the production and use of information technology account for a large share of the gains. The authors project that during the next decade, private sector productivity growth will continue at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, a significant increase from their 2002 projection of 2.2 percent growth.