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Journal Article
Job Loss Consequences and the Pandemic Recession
Workers displaced during the pandemic recession experienced better subsequent earnings and employment outcomes than workers displaced during previous recessions. A sharp recovery in aggregate labor market conditions after the pandemic recession accounts for these better outcomes. The industry and occupation composition of displaced workers, the prevalence of worker recalls, and the uptake of unemployment insurance benefits are unlikely explanations.
Working Paper
Basic Facts on the Coverage of the Paycheck Protection Program
This paper applies loan-level information from Paycheck Protection Program loans to analyze the coverage of this extraordinary lending program. We show that loans went to a large share of small businesses across most industries in the US, especially to industries that were most negatively impacted by COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. We geocode the loans and then identify that 2021 loans were more concentrated in low- and moderate-income communities, along with census tracts where minority residents are a majority of the population. The growth of nonemployer loans and fintech lending in the ...
Journal Article
Disability, Immigration, and Postpandemic Labor Supply
We study the large labor force increases since 2020 among disabled workers and among foreign-born workers in the United States. We show that the increase in the disabled labor force largely reflects a change in self-reported disability status among those already in the labor force rather than an actual increase in labor supply. We conjecture that immigration will likely contribute more to labor supply in 2024 than it did before the pandemic, but less than in 2020–2023.