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Journal Article
Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle
Experience from models such as SEER suggests that bank financial condition predict bank failures. However, it has been difficult to find a relationship between macroeconomic variables and bank failures. This paper shows ways in which simple time-series techniques can be used to forecast financial conditions of banks. The models include macroeconomic variables in order to consider systemic cyclical factors in forecasting. In addition, analysis of regression residuals is used to obtain relatively early warnings of unusual performance. ; The empirical result suggest that a limited number ...
Working Paper
Banking market structure, financial dependence and growth: international evidence from industry data
This paper explores the empirical relevance of banking market structure on growth. There is substantial evidence of a positive relationship between the level of development of the banking sector of an economy and its long-run output growth. Little is known, however, about the role played by the market structure of the banking sector on the dynamics of capital accumulation. This paper provides evidence that bank concentration promotes the growth of those industrial sectors that are more in need of external finance by facilitating credit access to younger firms. However, we also find evidence ...