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Working Paper
Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment
In this paper we review the evolution of macroeconomic modelling in a policy environment that took place over the past sixty years. We identify and characterise four generations of macro models. Particular attention is paid to the fourth generation -- dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We discuss some of the problems in how these models are implemented and quantified.
Working Paper
Note on the role of natural condition of control in the estimation of DSGE models
This paper is written by authors from technical and economic fields, motivated to find a common language and views on the problem of the optimal use of information in model estimation. The center of our interest is the natural condition of control -- a common assumption in the Bayesian estimation in technical sciences, which may be violated in economic applications. In estimating dynamic stochatic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, typically only a subset of endogenous variables are treated as measured even if additional data sets are available. The natural condition of control dictates the ...
Working Paper
Impulse response identification in DSGE models
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become a widely used tool for policymakers. This paper modifies the global identification theory used for structural vector autoregressions, and applies it to DSGE models. We use this theory to check whether a DSGE model structure allows for unique estimates of structural shocks and their dynamic effects. The potential cost of a lack of identification for policy oriented models along that specific dimension is huge, as the same model can generate a number of contrasting yet theoretically and empirically justifiable recommendations. The ...
Journal Article
Have rising oil prices become a greater threat to price stability?
The effect of oil prices on inflation has varied greatly in the last 50 years. Rising oil prices in the 1970s and early 1980s were associated with high and rising inflation. In the late 1980s and 1990s, however, the inflationary effect moderated. Although the experience of the energy crisis in the 1970s and its excessive and persistent inflation is unlikely to be repeated, mainly because of a better functioning monetary policy framework, Fukac finds recent evidence suggesting that oil prices again are playing a more significant role in inflation. He argues that temporarily accommodative ...