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Conference Paper
Why did Europe’s productivity catch-up sputter out? a tale of tigers and tortoises
This paper takes a different approach to examining the sharp turnaround in EU relative to U. S. labor productivity growth since 1995. The vast majority of the literature focuses on the American growth revival. But close to half of the turnaround was caused by a European retardation. What caused that retardation? Our paper shows that none of the consensus explanations of the American revival provide any help at all in explaining the European retardation. It is sui generis and therein lies a tale that has not previously been told. ; Europe has faltered across the board. The deceleration of its ...
Working Paper
Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario: Ambiguity Aversion and Non-Parametric Estimation of the Endowment Process
We study an agent who is unsure of the dynamics of consumption growth. She estimates her consumption process non-parametrically to place minimal restrictions on dynamics. We analytically show that the worst-case model that she uses for pricing, given a penalty on deviations from the point estimate, is a model with long-run risks. This result cannot in general be matched in a fixed model with only parameter uncertainty. With a single parameter determining risk preferences, the model generates high and volatile risk premia and matches R2s from return forecasting regressions, even though risk ...