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Journal Article
Is saving too low in the United States?
Many observers contend that the U.S. savings rate has declined in recent years and that it lags behind the savings rates of our trading partners. This article surveys different methods of measuring savings (and problems with these methods) and finds that U.S. saving may not be as low as is popularly believed.
Journal Article
On labor market indicators
An abstract for this article is not available.
Working Paper
On recognizing inflation
Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted growth rate. ; A version of this work was published in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Economic Review, 1988, V. 74, No. 4
Journal Article
Forecasts 1976 : recovery but no bicentennial boom
An abstract for this article is not available.
Working Paper
Measures of saving as indicators of economic growth
This paper contends that National Income Accounts (NIA) saving rates have been sending out misleading signals about the U.S. economy in the 1980s. The individuals' saving rate from the flow-of-funds accounts (FFA) is shown to be a much better indicator of resources available for future economic growth.
Journal Article
Money, the monetary base, and nominal GNP
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1981: hope springs eternal
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
The case of the reluctant recovery
Anecdotal evidence has it that the 1990-91 downturn was a predominantly white-collar, or middle management, recession. The data, however, show that the recession affected virtually all occupational groups. Moreover, by standards of past recessions, the 1990-91 downturn was relatively mild. It is the failure of employment to recover that is unusual. Evidence presented here indicates that the economys behavior results from a blend of cyclical and structural factors, with the structural factors delaying the recovery.
Journal Article
Equalizing regional differences in wages : a study of wages and migration in the South and other regions
Is the South rebelling againthis time against one of the tenets of economic theory? Neoclassical economic theory predicts that wage differentials between regions will disappear with time as workers move from low-wage areas to high-wage areas. However, in the seventies people tended to migrate southward, even though the South is usually thought to be a low-wage region. In his essay. Equalizing Regional Differences in Wages: A Study of Wages and Migration in the South and Other Regions, William E. Cullison offers a simple resolution to this paradox. By adjusting for the cost of living and by ...
Journal Article
Forecasts 1974