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Working Paper
Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shock
This paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989-2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. We examine determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import protection imposed at the extensive margin. New import restrictions on products arise through the temporary trade barriers (TTBs) ? antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties ? that have become some of the most important time-varying trade ...
Journal Article
The U.S. trade deficit: made in China?
Rapid growth of the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China has promoted a widespread view that the overall trade deficit is "made in China." The authors examine the probable consequences of increased protection directed toward U.S. imports from China. Their appraisal of recent and prospective U.S. trade policy focuses on textiles and apparel?sectors where the growth of imports from China has been prominent. They also consider the likely effects of yuan appreciation on the bilateral and overall trade deficits.
Working Paper
Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: evidence from the Great Recession
This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of> macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1?2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships. We confirm that appreciations in bilateral real exchange rates lead to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection: e.g., a 4 percent appreciation results in 60?90 percent more products being subject to import protection. We also provide evidence of a previously overlooked ...
Working Paper
Policy externalities: how U.S. antidumping affects Japanese exports to the EU
This paper investigates the international externalities associated with US use of antidumping (AD) measures by examining the relationship between US AD duties (ADDs) and Japanese exports to the US and EU over the 1992-2001 period. We first examine the trade destruction and trade diversion associated with Japanese exports to the US market resulting from US AD duties. We then investigate whether US ADDs impose externalities on a non- targeted third country by examining the effect of these US policies on Japanese exports to the EU. We document sizable trade deflection and trade depression in the ...
Working Paper
Self-enforcing trade agreements: evidence from antidumping policy
This paper empirically examines how governments make trade policy adjustments under a self-enforcing trade agreement in the presence of economic shocks. Using data on US antidumping (AD) policy formation between 1997-2006, we find that US antidumping policy is often consistent with the time-varying ?cooperative? tariff increases modeled in the self-enforcing trade agreement of Bagwell and Staiger (1990). Estimates of an empirical model of US antidumping indicate that the likelihood of a US antidumping duty is increasing in the size of the unexpected import surge, decreasing in the volatility ...
Working Paper
Trade deflection and trade depression
This is the first paper to empirically examine whether the United States' imposition of a special import restraint distorts foreign exports and thus affects world trade flows. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of a special import restraint by one country - an antidumping duty or a safeguard measure - causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of US special import restraints on Japanese exports of roughly 3500 commodities into 29 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our ...
Working Paper
China's export growth and U.S. trade policy
This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across ...