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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Journal Article
Publishing FOMC economic forecasts

Given the time lag between a monetary policy action and its effect on the economy, the importance of considering economic forecasts in the conduct of policy has long been acknowledged. Still, it is only over the past decade or so that the publication of central bank economic forecasts has been widely recognized as a potentially useful tool for monetary policy communication. As a result, many central banks have begun to express their views about the likely future path of the economy more openly (in line with a general trend toward greater central bank transparency). ; Last November, the ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Velocity and monetary policy in 1982

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Economic reform in China

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Financial instruments for mitigating credit risk

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation

The pandemic caused by COVID-19 represents an unprecedented negative shock to the global economy that is likely to severely depress economic activity in the near term. Could the crisis also put substantial downward pressure on price inflation? One way to assess the potential risk to the inflation outlook is by analyzing prices of standard and inflation-indexed government bonds. The probability of declining price levels—or deflation—among four major countries within the next year indicates that the perceived risk remains muted, despite the recent economic turmoil.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 11 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Pricing debt instruments: the options approach

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 19-30

Speech
Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality

Speech to Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, San Francisco, CA, June 24, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Periodic Essay
Banking in the clouds

Banks in Asia are looking into the opportunities, and risks, that cloud computing can bring to their industry as they expand domestically and regionally.
Asia Focus , Issue July

Working Paper
Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles

This paper studies a class of models developed by Townsend (1993) and Sargent (1991). These models feature dynamic signal extraction problems in which firms with heterogeneous information draw inferences from endogenously generated time series about the value of common persistent shock. Because the information firms receive is partially determined by the expectations of other firms, each firm must 'forecast the forecasts of others'. Moreover, since it is common knowledge that everyone is in the same situation, there occurs an infinite regress in expectations, in which each firm attempts to ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-14

Conference Paper
Noncooperative monetary policies in interdependent economies: time consistency and reputation

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