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Economy's Essential Early Care and Education Industry but Still Faces Labor Shortfall
Crockett, Anna; Zhang, Xiaohan (2022-05-16)
When the pandemic first struck and many child care centers closed, ECE worker unemployment spiked. Now that two years have passed since the onset of COVID-19 in the United States, to what extent has the industry recovered?
Dallas Fed Communities

Working Paper
Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Benchimol, Jonathan (2020-05-28)
Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how U.S. shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 386

Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2021-02-20)
I investigate the downward drift of U.S. interest rates from 1984:Q1 to 2019:Q4. For this, I bring the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model to data on the U.S. and an aggregate of its major trading partners using Bayesian techniques. I show that the U.S. natural (or equilibrium) interest rate recovered from the model has fallen more gradually than the long-run U.S. real rate, cushioned by productivity shocks. Since inflation expectations became well-anchored in the ‘90s, this implies that the continued interest rate decline is largely explained by the real rate tracking the natural ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 403

Working Paper
Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2020-10-22)
Much consideration has been given among scholars and policymakers to the decline in the U.S. natural rate of interest since the 2007 – 09 global financial crisis. In this paper, I investigate its determinants and drivers through the lens of the workhorse two-country New Keynesian model that captures the trade and technological interconnectedness of the U.S. with the rest of the world economy. Using Bayesian techniques, I bring the set of binding log-linearized equilibrium conditions from this model to the data, but augmented with survey-based forecasts in order to align the solution with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 403

Journal Article
Federal Support Keeps State Budgets (Including Texas’) Healthy amid Tumult from COVID-19-Induced Economic Ills
Saving, Jason L. (2021)
An unprecedented federal fiscal response to the COVID-19-induced recession in early 2020 helped prop up state government finances even among states whose tax and finance structures put them at particular risk during a downturn. A variety of programs helped individuals, firms and jurisdictions avoid what some feared would be a catastrophic collapse.
Southwest Economy , Issue Third Quarter

Speech
Globalization and the Latin perspective (with reference to Las Meninas)
Fisher, Richard W. (2006)
Remarks at the Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires, April 19, 2006 ; "My business contacts talk and act as if the globalization now under way will bring another decade of intense competition. This hothouse will enable--perhaps even force--businesses to keep productivity growth in the range we have enjoyed since the mid-1990s--hopefully, for many years to come. If labor productivity growth can stay near 3 percent, monetary policy can accommodate relatively faster growth without igniting inflation."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 72

Working Paper
Unilateral OECD policies to mitigate global climate change
Huntington, Hillard G.; Brown, Stephen P. A. (2000)
This article offers an alternative perspective for thinking about climate change policy when the developing countries are not participating. If industrialized countries cooperate with each other to reduce their emissions, but comply at levels below those required under the Kyoto protocol, they will have incentives to adopt policies that are more costly to the world than a carbon tax. These incentives result from terms-of-trade gains that result if conservation lowers world prices lower for fuels the industrialized countries import. We consider cases where the industrialized countries act ...
Working Papers , Paper 0003

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds
Kerr, Emily; Slijk, Christopher (2019-07-11)
Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Competitive viability in banking: looking beyond the balance sheet.
Clark, Jeffrey A.; Siems, Thomas F. (1997)
Financial Industry Studies Working Paper , Paper 97-5

Working Paper
Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies
Kollmann, Robert (2020-02-11)
This paper studies rational bubbles in non-linear dynamic general equilibrium models of the macroeconomy. The term ‘rational bubble’ refers to multiple equilibria due to the absence of a transversality condition (TVC) for capital. The lack of TVC can be due to an OLG population structure. If a TVC is imposed, the macro models considered here have a unique solution. Bubbles reflect self-fulfilling fluctuations in agents’ expectations about future investment. In contrast to explosive rational bubbles in linearized models (Blanchard (1979)), the rational bubbles in non-linear models here ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 378

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