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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 

Journal Article
Derivative markets and competitiveness

Economic Perspectives , Volume 16 , Issue Jul

Newsletter
Economy to Roll Along at a Solid Pace in 2015 and Accelerate Slightly in 2016

According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2016. Inflation is expected to decrease in 2015 but rebound in 2016. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move lower through the end of 2016, reaching 5 percent by then. Light vehicle sales are predicted to improve moderately in 2015 and 2016.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis

Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Journal Article
OTC Derivatives—A Primer on Market Infrastructure and Regulatory Policy

In this article, we discuss some recent developments relating to the regulation of derivatives markets, specifically the Group of Twenty (G-20) mandates, and examine the infrastructure that supports derivatives markets (including both the trade execution and post-trade clearing and settlement processes). Then we identify some of the policy issues raised by the G-20 market structure mandates. To provide a foundation for that discussion, first we explain some key concepts and terms.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q III , Pages 80-99

Journal Article
Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk: lessons from recent events

Banking and currency crises have done severe economic damage in many countries in recent years. This article examines the causes and characteristics of these crises and the public policies intended to prevent them or mitigate their adverse consequences.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 25 , Issue Q III , Pages 9-28

Working Paper
The European unemployment dilemma

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 95-17

Conference Paper
A comparison of small business finance in two Chicago minority neighborhoods

Proceedings , Paper 780

Working Paper
Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?

Recent research reports contradictory estimates of productivity growth for the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia. In particular, estimates using real factor prices find relatively rapid TFP growth; estimates using quantities of inputs and output find relatively low TFP growth. The difference is particularly notable for Singapore, where the difference is about 2-1/4 percentage-points per year. We show that about 2/3 of that difference reflects differences in estimated capital payments. We argue that these differences reflect economically interesting imperfections in output and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-15

Newsletter
Hogs and pigs

Agricultural Letter , Issue Jul , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Agriculture: embargo undermines strong world demand for agriculture

Economic Perspectives , Volume 4 , Issue Jan , Pages 12-18

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