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Working Paper
The household spending response to the 2003 tax cut: evidence from survey data
Lupton, Joseph P.; Sheiner, Louise; Coronado, Julia Lynn
(2005)
The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act of 2003 has been described as textbook fiscal stimulus. Using household survey data on the self-reported qualitative response to the tax cuts, we estimate that the boost to aggregate personal consumption expenditures from the child credit rebate and the reduction in withholdings raised the average level of real GDP in the second half of 2003 by 0.2 percent and by 0.3 percent in the first half of 2004. We also show that households in the survey were well aware of their tax cuts and tended to spend equally out of the child credit rebate and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2005-32
Working Paper
Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
Kiley, Michael T.
(2018-01-17)
Interest rates may remain low and fall to their effective lower bound (ELB) often. As a result, quantitative easing (QE), in which central banks expand their balance sheet to lower long-term interest rates, may complement policy approaches focused on adjustments in short-term interest rates. Simulation results using a large-scale model (FRB/US) suggest that QE does not improve economic performance if the steady-state interest rate is high, confirming that such policies were not advantageous from 1960 to 2007. However, QE can offset a significant portion of the adverse effects of the ELB when ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-004
Working Paper
What drives movements in the unemployment rate? a decomposition of the Beveridge curve
Figura, Andrew; Barnichon, Regis
(2010)
This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand--movements along the Beveridge curve and shifts in the Beveridge curve due to layoffs--(2) a component driven by changes in labor supply--shifts in the Beveridge curve due to quits, movements in-and-out of the labor force and demographics--and (3) a component driven by changes in the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to jobs. We find that cyclical movements ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2010-48
Working Paper
ATM surcharge bans and bank market structure: the case of Iowa and its neighbors
Hannan, Timothy H.
(2005)
It is frequently claimed that high ATM surcharges actually attract customers to the banks that impose them, particularly if they operate large ATM networks. By exploiting as "natural experiments" two events associated with the lifting of surcharge bans in Iowa and in the states that neighbor Iowa, this paper seeks to test for the implications of this phenomenon as it applies to the market shares of banking institutions and to several aspects of market structure. Consistent with these implications, results of "difference-in-difference" analyses suggest that the shares of larger market ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2005-46
Working Paper
Production and inventory control at the General Motors Corporation during the 1920s and 1930s
Wilcox, David W.; Kashyap, Anil K.
(1990)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 135
Working Paper
Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations: comment
Kurmann, Andre; Mertens, Elmar
(2013)
Beaudry and Portier (American Economoc Review, 2006) propose an identification scheme to study the effects of news shocks about future productivity in Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). This comment shows that their methodology does not have a unique solution, when applied to their VECMs with more than two variables. The problem arises from the interplay of cointegration assumptions and long-run restrictions imposed by Beaudry and Portier (2006).
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2013-08
Working Paper
Signal extraction for nonstationary multivariate time series with illustrations for trend inflation
McElroy, Tucker S.; Trimbur, Thomas M.
(2012)
This paper advances the theory and methodology of signal extraction by introducing asymptotic and finite sample formulas for optimal estimators of signals in nonstationary multivariate time series. Previous literature has considered only univariate or stationary models. However, in current practice and research, econometricians, macroeconomists, and policy-makers often combine related series - that may have stochastic trends--to attain more informed assessments of basic signals like underlying inflation and business cycle components. Here, we use a very general model structure, of widespread ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2012-45
Working Paper
A comparative anatomy of credit risk models
Gordy, Michael B.
(1998)
Within the past two years, important advances have been made in modeling credit risk at the portfolio level. Practitioners and policy makers have invested in implementing and exploring a variety of new models individually. Less progress has been made, however, with comparative analyses. Direct comparison often is not straightforward, because the different models may be presented within rather different mathematical frameworks. This paper offers a comparative anatomy of two especially influential benchmarks for credit risk models, J.P. Morgan's CreditMetrics and Credit Suisse Financial ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1998-47
Working Paper
What's the Story? A New Perspective on the Value of Economic Forecasts
Sinha, Nitish R.; Hollrah, Christopher A.; Sharpe, Steven A.
(2017-11-03)
We apply textual analysis tools to measure the degree of optimism versus pessimism of the text that describes Federal Reserve Board forecasts published in the Greenbook. The resulting measure of Greenbook text sentiment, ?Tonality,? is found to be strongly correlated, in the intuitive direction, with the Greenbook point forecast for key economic variables such as unemployment and inflation. We then examine whether Tonality has incremental power for predicting unemployment, GDP growth, and inflation up to four quarters ahead. We find it to have significant and substantive predictive power for ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-107
Working Paper
Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes
Chang, Andrew C.
(2018-06-22)
What is the policy uncertainty surrounding expiring taxes? How uncertain are the approvals of routine extensions of temporary tax policies? To answer these questions, I use event studies to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for firms that claimed the U.S. research and development (R&D) tax credit from 1996-2015. In 1996, the U.S. R&D tax credit was statutorily temporary but was routinely extended ten times until 2015, when it was made permanent. I take the event dates as both when these ten extensions of the R&D tax credit were introduced into committee and when the extensions were ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-041
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 421 items
Econometric models 256 items
Inflation (Finance) 204 items
Bank loans 176 items
Interest rates 167 items
Monetary policy - United States 165 items
Economic conditions - United States 152 items
International trade 138 items
Consumer behavior 133 items
Prices 133 items
Banks and banking 125 items
Foreign exchange rates 124 items
Greenspan, Alan 119 items
Business cycles 119 items
Mortgages 117 items
Consumer credit 116 items
Risk management 113 items
Risk 107 items
International finance 104 items
Bank supervision 103 items
Financial markets 101 items
Credit 100 items
Payment systems 100 items
Federal Open Market Committee 92 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 87 items
Financial crises 82 items
Bank capital 81 items
Forecasting 80 items
Bank reserves 79 items
Consumption (Economics) 78 items
Fiscal policy 76 items
Bank profits 73 items
Bank deposits 72 items
Productivity 71 items
Government securities 68 items
Money supply 68 items
Labor market 66 items
Saving and investment 62 items
Over-the-counter markets 61 items
Wages 60 items
Consumer surveys 58 items
Balance of payments 57 items
Regulation Z: Truth in Lending 56 items
Economic forecasting 55 items
Electronic funds transfers 54 items
Stock - Prices 53 items
Federal Reserve System 52 items
Stock market 52 items
Federal funds rate 51 items
Money 51 items
Mortgage loans 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Capital investments 49 items
Housing - Prices 49 items
Macroeconomics 49 items
Taxation 49 items
Liquidity (Economics) 48 items
Capital market 47 items
Exports 47 items
Investments 46 items
Banking law 45 items
Industrial productivity 45 items
Japan 45 items
Unemployment 44 items
Financial institutions 43 items
Bank mergers 42 items
Business conditions 42 items
Laware, John Patrick 42 items
Small business 42 items
Banks and banking - Accounting 41 items
Banking market 40 items
Financial services industry 40 items
Regulation Y: Bank Holding Companies and Change in Bank Control 40 items
Bank holding companies 39 items
Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 39 items
Labor supply 39 items
Derivative securities 38 items
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 38 items
Housing - Finance 38 items
Securities 38 items
Uncertainty 38 items
Banks and banking - Service charges 37 items
Capital movements 37 items
Consumer protection 37 items
Econometrics 37 items
Federal Reserve banks - Service charges 37 items
Income 37 items
Dollar, American 36 items
Capital 35 items
Financial stability 35 items
Time-series analysis 35 items
Banking structure 34 items
Consumer Advisory Council 34 items
Economic conditions 34 items
Imports 34 items
Debt 33 items
Developing countries 33 items
Liquidity 33 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 32 items
Credit cards 32 items
Economic development 32 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 32 items
Employment 31 items
Employment (Economic theory) 31 items
Globalization 31 items
Industrial capacity 31 items
Basel capital accord 30 items
Discount 30 items
Regulation B: Equal Credit Opportunity 30 items
Regulation CC: Availability of Funds and Collection of Checks 30 items
Financial crisis 29 items
Banks and banking, International 28 items
Deposit insurance 28 items
Budget 27 items
Economics 27 items
Federal Reserve banks - Profits 27 items
Housing 27 items
Investments, Foreign 27 items
Regulation E: Electronic Fund Transfers 27 items
War finance 27 items
Federal Reserve banks - Costs 26 items
Wealth 26 items
Expenditures, Public 25 items
Real property 25 items
Regulation D: Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions 25 items
Regulation T: Credit by Brokers and Dealers 25 items
Stocks 25 items
Mexico 24 items
Technology 24 items
Zero lower bound 24 items
Phillips curve 23 items
War - Economic aspects 23 items
Asset-backed financing 22 items
Germany 22 items
Labor productivity 22 items
Volcker, Paul A. 22 items
Bank failures 21 items
Bank management 21 items
Banks and banking, Central 21 items
Bonds 21 items
Households - Economic aspects 21 items
Regulation C: Home Mortgage Disclosure 21 items
Regulation H: Membership of State Banking Institutions in the Federal Reserve System 21 items
International economic relations 20 items
Open market operations 20 items
Social security 20 items
Asset pricing 19 items
Foreclosure 19 items
Savings and loan associations 19 items
Forward guidance 19 items
Angell, Wayne D. 18 items
Brokers 18 items
Budget deficits 18 items
Education 18 items
Education - Economic aspects 18 items
Hedge funds 18 items
Human capital 18 items
Inflation 18 items
Truth in Lending Act 18 items
Agricultural credit 17 items
Banks 17 items
Federal Reserve banks - Directors 17 items
Federal funds market (United States) 17 items
Inequality 17 items
Regulation G: Disclosure and Reporting of CRA-Related Agreements 17 items
Thrift Institutions Advisory Council 17 items
Bankruptcy 16 items
COVID-19 16 items
Check collection systems 16 items
Federal Reserve District, 2nd 16 items
Federal Reserve banks 16 items
Foreign exchange 16 items
Futures 16 items
Johnson, Manuel H. 16 items
Systemic risk 16 items
Effective lower bound 16 items
Agriculture - Economic aspects 15 items
Balance of trade 15 items
Bank assets 15 items
Bank lending 15 items
Community banks 15 items
Economic policy 15 items
Emerging markets 15 items
Gold reserves 15 items
Great Britain 15 items
Interstate banking 15 items
Inventories 15 items
Money market 15 items
Mullins, David W. 15 items
Regulation X: Borrowers of Securities Credit 15 items
Retail trade 15 items
Subprime mortgage 15 items
Branch banks 14 items
Checks 14 items
Competition 14 items
Computers 14 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 14 items
Lindsey, Lawrence 14 items
Manufactures 14 items
Monetary theory 14 items
Mutual funds 14 items
Pensions 14 items
Regulation DD: Truth in Savings 14 items
Statistics 14 items
Year 2000 date conversion (Computer systems) 14 items
Bank competition 13 items
Banks and banking, Foreign - United States 13 items
Community development 13 items
Consolidation and merger of corporations 13 items
Federal Reserve 13 items
Financial literacy 13 items
Flow of funds 13 items
Government-sponsored enterprises 13 items
Great Recession 13 items
Income distribution 13 items
Industrial production index 13 items
Investment 13 items
Kelley, Edward Watson 13 items
Margins (Security trading) 13 items
Production (Economic theory) 13 items
Recessions 13 items
Retirement 13 items
Seger, Martha Romayne 13 items
Trade 13 items
Banks and banking, American 12 items
Bayesian estimation 12 items
Commercial loans 12 items
Debts, External 12 items
Discrimination in consumer credit 12 items
Federal Reserve District, 1st 12 items
Financial crises - Asia 12 items
Financial leverage 12 items
Industries 12 items
Medicare 12 items
Regulation K: International Banking Operations 12 items
Small business - Finance 12 items
Swaps (Finance) 12 items
Agricultural industries - Finance 11 items
Automated tellers 11 items
Automobile industry and trade 11 items
Bank of Credit and Commerce International 11 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) - Members 11 items
Consumption 11 items
Discount window 11 items
Economics - Study and teaching 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 11th 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 12th 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 7th 11 items
Gross domestic product 11 items
Home equity loans 11 items
Information technology 11 items
Insurance 11 items
Nomination 11 items
Stocks - Rate of return 11 items
Unconventional monetary policy 11 items
Vector autoregression 11 items
Basel III 10 items
Bond market 10 items
Business enterprises 10 items
Canada 10 items
Capital assets pricing model 10 items
China 10 items
Cointegration 10 items
Corporate bonds 10 items
Defense industries 10 items
Federal Reserve District, 5th 10 items
Federal Reserve District, 9th 10 items
Gross national product 10 items
Money laundering 10 items
Overdrafts 10 items
Regulation 10 items
State finance 10 items
DSGE models 10 items
Financial Frictions 10 items
Agricultural productivity 9 items
Arbitrage 9 items
Bank Secrecy Act 9 items
Coinage 9 items
Collateral 9 items
Commercial paper issues 9 items
Corporate governance 9 items
Credit supply 9 items
Debts, Public 9 items
Economic indicators 9 items
Economic stabilization 9 items
Expedited Funds Availability Act of 1987 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 10th 9 items