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Bank:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 

Discussion Paper
A consumer inertia model of entry deterrence

Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics , Paper 60

Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : International Trends and Determinants

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest ? the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances ? have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-073

Working Paper
Plant shutdowns, compositional effects, and procyclical labor productivity: the stylized facts for auto assembly plants

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 94-13

Working Paper
Exchange rates, optimal debt composition, and hedging in small open economies

This paper develops a model of the firm's choice between debt denominated in local currency and that denominated in foreign currency in a small open economy characterized by exchange rate risk and hedging possibilities. The model shows that the currency composition of debt and the level of hedging are endogenously determined as optimal firms' responses to a tradeoff between the lower cost of borrowing in foreign debt and the higher risk of such borrowing due to exchange rate uncertainty. Both the composition of debt and the level of hedging depend on common factors such as foreign exchange ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-18

Working Paper
Determinants of savings and loan failure rates: estimates of a time- varying proportional hazard function

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 207

Working Paper
Making the Cobb-Douglas functional form an efficient nonparametric estimator through localization

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 94-31

Discussion Paper
The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run : Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound

In response to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 25 basis points in December 2008, and maintained that target range until the end of 2015. Over that same period, longer-term interest rates in the United States were at historically low levels.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-02-09

Working Paper
Can long-run restrictions identify technology shocks?

Gali's innovative approach of imposing long-run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations of several relatively standard business cycle models. We find it encouraging that the impulse responses derived from applying the Gali methodology to the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses. However, we highlight the importance of small-sample bias in the estimated impulse responses and show that ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 792

Discussion Paper
Recent Euro-area Inflows into U.S. Bonds: Reconciling and Understanding New Data Sources

In this note we review the data on U.S. cross-border financial flows and positions with a focus on one question of current interest: have euro-area investors been increasing their holdings of U.S. securities since the possibility of European Central Bank quantitative easing (ECB QE) emerged in the latter half of 2014? The prospect of ECB QE, combined with the prospect of U.S. policy rate liftoff, suggested that U.S. interest rates would soon exceed euro-area rates by a wide margin, which might have provided an incentive for euro-area investors to seek higher-yielding U.S. assets, especially ...
IFDP Notes , Paper 2015-06-19

Conference Paper
Tax reform and labour market performance in the Euro area: a macroeconomic assessment




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