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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Journal Article
What monetary regime for post-war Iraq?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Food for crude

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World

Restoring price stability is a key part of the Fed’s mandate, and it is what the American people expect. Achieving it will take time and a broad view of economic conditions. Policymakers have to respond to an economy that is evolving in real time and prepare for what the economy will look like in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University on March 4.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 08 , Pages 8

Journal Article
Western economic developments

Western economic developments , Issue Jun

Working Paper
Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce

This paper provides a historical overview on financial crises and their origins. The objective is to discuss a few of the modern statistical methods that can be used to evaluate predictors of these rare events. The problem involves prediction of binary events and therefore fits modern statistical learning, signal processing theory, and classification methods. The discussion also emphasizes the need to supplement statistics and computational techniques with economics. A forecast?s success in this environment hinges on the economic consequences of the actions taken as a result of the forecast, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-19

Journal Article
How and why does age at kindergarten entry matter?

Those who have spent time in a kindergarten classroom know that there are remarkable differences in children's skills. Research has shown that these skill differences are strongly tied to age, with students who enter kindergarten later in life doing better than younger entrants. Moreover, an "entry-age achievement gap" has been found to persist until as late as the eighth or ninth grade. ; In this Economic Letter, I describe possible interpretations of the entry-age achievement gap, along with their implications, and discuss new empirical research attempting to establish their relative ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Growth and government policy: lessons from Hong Kong and Singapore

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Export Alaskan oil?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Reactions to uncertainty

Economic Review , Issue Sum , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve and the problem of inflation

Economic Review , Issue Win , Pages 3-11

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