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Journal Article
New York - New Jersey job expansion to continue in 2000
Rosen, Rae D.; Orr, James A. (2000-04)
Employment growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 2000 is expected to reach 1.8 percent, or 290,000 new jobs--continuing a seven-year expansion trend. However, some moderation in the growth in the national economy over the second half of 2000 may slow the region's job growth and prevent it from matching last year's rate.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 6 , Issue Apr

Discussion Paper
The Welfare Costs of Superstorm Sandy
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Abel, Jaison R. (2012-12-18)
As most of the New York metropolitan region begins to get back to normal following the devastation caused by superstorm Sandy, researchers and analysts are trying to assess the total ?economic cost? of the storm. But what, exactly, is meant by economic cost? Typically, those tallying up the economic cost of a disaster think of two types of costs: loss of capital (property damage and destruction) and loss of economic activity (caused by disruptions). But there is another important type of economic loss that often is not estimated or discussed in policymaking decisions: loss of welfare or ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121218

Discussion Paper
Evolution in Bank Complexity
McAndrews, James J.; Cetorelli, Nicola; Traina, James (2014-03-28)
In yesterday’s post, our colleagues discussed the historic changes in financial sector size. Here, we tackle a related question on dynamics—how has bank complexity evolved through time? Recently, academics and policymakers have proposed a variety of strong actions to curb bank complexity, stemming from the view that complex banks are undesirable. While the large banks of today are certainly complex, we lack a thorough understanding of how they got that way. In this post and in our related contribution to the Economic Policy Review (EPR) volume, we focus on organizational complexity, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140328

Discussion Paper
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets
Cipriani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio (2015-03-09)
Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical literature has identified abstract mechanisms through which herding can arise, even in a world where people are fully rational. Until now, however, the empirical work on herding has been completely disconnected from this theoretical analysis; it simply looked for statistical evidence of trade clustering and, when that evidence was present, interpreted the clustering ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150309

Discussion Paper
Do Low Rates Encourage Yield Seeking by Money Market Funds?
La Spada, Gabriele (2018-03-07)
The term “reach for yield” refers to investors’ tendency to buy riskier assets in hopes of securing higher returns. Do low rates on safe assets encourage such yield-seeking behavior, particularly among U.S. prime money market funds (MMFs)? In a forthcoming paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, I develop a model of MMF competition to understand whether competitive pressure leads these funds to reach for yield in a low-rate environment like the current one. I test the model’s predictions on the 2002-08 period and show that, after controlling for changes in risk premia, declines ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180307

Discussion Paper
Following Borrowers through Forbearance
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-11-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase marked a reversal from the modest decline in the second quarter of 2020, a downturn driven by a sharp contraction in credit card balances. In the third quarter, credit card balances declined again, even as consumer spending recovered somewhat; meanwhile, mortgage originations came in at a robust $1.049 trillion, the highest level since 2003. Many of the efforts ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201117

Discussion Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Hyman, Benjamin (2025-03-05)
After a period of particularly high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years. Indeed, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has come down from a peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. The New York Fed asked regional businesses about their own cost and price increases in February, as well as their expectations for future inflation. Service firms reported that business cost and selling price increases continued to moderate through 2024, while manufacturing firms ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250305

Discussion Paper
Credit Score Impacts from Past Due Student Loan Payments
Mangrum, Daniel; Wang, Crystal (2025-03-26)
In our companion post, we highlighted how the pandemic and subsequent policy actions disrupted trends in the growth of student loan balances, the pace of repayment, and the classification of delinquent loans. In this post, we discuss how these changes affected the credit scores of student loan borrowers and how the return of negative reporting of past due balances will impact the credit standing of student loan borrowers. We estimate that more than nine million student loan borrowers will face significant drops in credit score once delinquencies appear on credit reports in the first half of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250326b

Report
Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: 1. overview of methodology and application
Boldin, Michael D. (1992)
Switching Models are advocated as interesting and tractable alternatives to conventional, linear models of the business cycle. Applications are motivated by the belief that expansions and recessions are distinct regimes with different data generating processes. Therefore, it is important that econometric specifications capture this fundamental asymmetry. With Switching Models, both the time-periods and characteristics of business cycle regimes can be derived simultaneously. Asymmetries can then be tested with a minimum of prior modeling assumptions and restrictions. Results with monthly data ...
Research Paper , Paper 9211

Speech
The national and regional economy
Dudley, William (2014-10-07)
Remarks at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Speech , Paper 144

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