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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 

Journal Article
Economic policy implications of world demographic change

Demographic changes over the next 50 years will affect the world economy in many ways. Some of these effects will be beneficial. In developing countries, for example, falling birthrates will enable women to supply more paid labor and families to invest more in the education of each child. Other demographic changes will cause economic problems. In developed countries, population aging is likely to imply government pension systems cannot continue with their current rules. Population growth in developing countries could also change patterns of world trade and thereby reduce the wages of some ...
Economic Review , Volume 89 , Issue Q I , Pages 39-64

Journal Article
Velocity: money's second dimension

Economic Review , Volume 63 , Issue Jun , Pages 15-31

Journal Article
The rise of ethanol in rural America

Main Street Economist , Issue Mar

Conference Paper
Commentary : global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole , Issue Aug , Pages 57-71

Conference Paper
Recent developments in Bulgaria

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve

This paper examines international spillovers from unconventional monetary policy between the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Japan, and assesses the influence of asynchronous policy normalization on the slope of the yield curve. Using high frequency futures data to identify monetary policy surprises and controlling for contemporaneous news, I find that spillovers increase during periods of unconventional monetary policy and strengthen during asynchronous policy normalization. Local projections suggest persistent spillovers from the Federal Reserve, whereas other ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-9

Working Paper
New estimates of the U.S. economy's potential growth rate

Using an Okun's law framework, this paper estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed-and chain-weighted indexes of GDP. Estimated potential growth rates are then decomposed into growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. Estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s are compared with estimates from earlier periods using both fixed and chain weights. ; The first section of the paper compares the behavior of output, productivity, and employment during the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-08

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increased the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about substantial effects on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of the CARES Act UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment but also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-07

Journal Article
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: 2007 annual report

TEN , Issue Spr , Pages 37-81

Journal Article
Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?

For much of 2020, Americans have saved a greater share of their income than ever before. This increase in savings appears to be predominantly driven by precautionary motives. Therefore, consumers may be reluctant to draw down these savings in the future to support spending.
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