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Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S. (2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-04

Working Paper
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2022-05-18)
We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a quantitative business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions and estimated to fit U.S. time series. In the model, procyclical automation threats create real wage rigidity that amplify labor market fluctuations. We find that this automation mechanism is quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-17

A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-06-17)
Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been growing interest in tracking labor market activity with “big data” sources like Google Trends.1 Just as an example, one can track how the number of Google searches with the term unemployment office has changed over the past week for the Chicago metro area or explore how unemployment became one of the top searched issues across the U.S. during the early months of the pandemic here.
Chicago Fed Insights

Newsletter
What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?
Brave, Scott A.; Kelley, David (2018)
We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.
Chicago Fed Letter

Discussion Paper
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Peck, Richard (2014-07-14)
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140714a

Report
Replacement hiring and the productivity-wage gap
Wee, Shu Lin; Acharya, Sushant (2018-06-01)
A large and growing share of hires in the United States are replacement hires. This increase coincides with a growing productivity-wage gap. We connect these trends by building a model where firms post long-lived vacancies and engage in on-the-job search for more productive workers. These features improve a firm's bargaining position while raising workers' job insecurity and the wedge between hiring and meeting rates. All three channels lower wages while raising productivity. Quantitatively, increased replacement hiring explains half the increase in the productivity-wage gap. The socially ...
Staff Reports , Paper 860

Journal Article
Investing to Create Good Jobs
Rolland, Keith; Baldini, Noelle (2015-10)
A growing number of foundation, nonprofit, and for-profit investors are making investments for measurable social and environmental impact as well as financial return. The ?impact investing? field includes a few investors that are investing in businesses specifically to create jobs for unemployed and underemployed residents. These investors also provide ongoing assistance to owners of the businesses to create ?good quality jobs,? which generally provide income above the minimum wage, health benefits, and training and opportunities for workers to move into positions with higher wages. Three ...
Cascade , Volume 4

Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market
Gregory, Victoria; Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David (2021-08-12)
Grouping workers by patterns in employment history can help explain persistent joblessness and the quick recovery in productivity after a recession.
On the Economy

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Journal Article
The Unemployment Cost of COVID-19: How High and How Long?
Sahin, Aysegul; Tasci, Murat (2020-05-07)
We use flows into and out of unemployment to estimate the unemployment rate over the next year. This approach produces less stark projections for the unemployment rate over the course of the next year than some of the more alarming projections that have been reported. Using our approach and assuming that the severest social-distancing measures will be lifted in June, we estimate that the unemployment rate will peak in May at about 16 percent but gradually decline thereafter and end the year at 7.5 percent.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 09

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