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Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Sagnanert, Pon; Cañas, Jesus; Torres, Luis (2023-09-26)
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Speech
U.S. Economic Outlook
Moskow, Michael H. (2007-03-07)
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Jewish United Fund Luncheon - The Standard Club - 320 S. Plymouth Ct. Chicago, IL. March 7, 2007.
Speech , Paper 9

Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
Airaudo, Florencia; de Soyres, Francois; Richards, Keith; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-03-31)
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-006

Speech
Understanding the evolving relationship between the United States and Mexico
Coronado, Roberto (2024-04-12)
Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Roberto Coronado delivered these remarks at the Western Hemispheric Trade Center Annual Conference at Texas A&M International University in Laredo.
Speeches and Essays

Working Paper
Trade and Inequality in an Overlapping Generations Model with Capital Accumulation
Nie, Jun; Ravikumar, B.; Sposi, Michael (2024-09-23)
We study the lifecycle aspect of within-country inequality that stems from capital and labor services supplied by individuals. Our environment is a combination of a multicountry trade model and an overlapping generations model with production and capital accumulation. Trade liberalization increases the measured total factor productivity in each country, which increases the marginal product of capital and incentivizes capital accumulation. Higher capital stock and higher measured productivity raise the marginal product of labor and, hence, wages. Inequality, measured by the ratio of old ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-018

U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
Martínez García, Enrique; Sposi, Michael (2025-05-13)
U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously. Modern models applied to the U.S. reveal that tariffs can enhance consumer welfare via terms-of-trade gains, a costly externality on foreign partners, but only if those partners don’t retaliate. Thus, potential consumption gains for U.S. households and businesses depend on policy choices and strategic responses from trading partners.
Dallas Fed Economics

Newsletter
The Impact of Trade on the North American Auto Industry
Klier, Thomas H. (2019)
On September 4–5, 2019, the Chicago Fed held a conference at its Detroit Branch to discuss trade’s role in shaping the North American auto industry. This event brought together nearly 100 attendees, including industry leaders, academics, and policymakers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume 427 , Issue 427

Understanding the Net International Investment Position
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-05-15)
The U.S. NIIP is the difference between U.S.-owned foreign assets and foreign-owned U.S. assets. Why has the NIIP become more negative in recent years?
On the Economy

Report
Productivity spillovers, terms of trade, and the "home market effect"
Pesenti, Paolo; Corsetti, Giancarlo; Martin, Philippe (2005-02-01)
This paper analyzes the welfare implications of international spillovers related to productivity gains, changes in market size, or government spending. We introduce trade costs and endogenous varieties in a two-country general-equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, drawing a distinction between productivity gains from manufacturing efficiency and those related to firms' lower cost of entry or product differentiation. Our model suggests that countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply a smaller number of goods at a lower international price. Countries with ...
Staff Reports , Paper 201

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