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Journal Article
Tough Choices: New Jersey Schools during the Great Recession and Beyond
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Livingston, Max (2021-07-01)
This study examines the medium-term effects of the Great Recession on school finances in New Jersey using detailed school district panel data and an interrupted time series analysis. The authors find that the recession led to sharp cuts in school funding and expenditure, in spite of the federal stimulus. These cuts deepened as the stimulus abated. An analysis of variations by metropolitan area reveals that the Camden metro area, the highest poverty area reviewed, experienced considerably larger cuts in expenditures when the stimulus receded compared with other areas. The findings are ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 27 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-34

Working Paper
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-06-17)
Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2108

Journal Article
The Long Road to Recovery: New York Schools in the Aftermath of the Great Recession
Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2019-12)
Using rich panel data and an interrupted time-series analysis, the authors examine how the funding and expenditure dynamics of New York school districts changed in the four years after the Great Recession. Extending prior work on the immediate effects of the recession on school finances in 2009-10 in Chakrabarti, Livingston, and Setren (2015), they take a longer-term view through 2012, to document what happened when support from federal stimulus funding began to dwindle and then ended. The analysis finds that the more than $6 billion in support from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 25 , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Regional Spotlight: The State of the States
Flora, Paul R. (2016-10)
The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years ? but don?t tell that to a handful of states that have suffered recessions recently. Paul R. Flora discusses how Philadelphia Fed indexes may aid in the tricky business of identifying recession patterns among the 50 states.
Economic Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 4 , Pages 8-15

Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Cornelius (2020-10-22)
While almost no one anticipated the pandemic-induced shutdown of economic activity experienced this year, local government officials know that the business cycle will sooner or later pull down tax revenues. During years of expansion, cities and counties should be setting aside resources that will enable them to lessen the cuts necessary to balance their budgets during a recession. How prepared were the local governments of the Cleveland Fed’s Fourth District for the COVID-19 crisis?1 Looking at the most recent data available for a sample of the District’s largest cities and counties, we ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-11-17)
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Briefing
The Roots of ‘Bubbly’ Recessions
Fessenden, Helen; Phan, Toan (2018-04)
A downturn following the collapse of an asset bubble ? an episode of speculative booms in asset prices ? can be severe and sustained, with output and employment often lower than in the prebubble economy. This Economic Brief considers some possible theoretical explanations. It argues, based on insights from a simple economic model, that the interaction among financial frictions, wage rigidity, and the constraints of monetary policy near the zero lower bound is a key source of inefficiency in large bubbles. One potential remedy is to regulate speculative investment on bubbly assets so that ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue April

Discussion Paper
Tough Decisions, Depleted Revenues: Analysis of New Jersey Education Finances during the Great Recession
Sutherland, Sarah; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2012-02-01)
Today’s post, which complements Monday’s on New York State, considers the Great Recession’s impact on education funding in New Jersey. Using analysis published in our recent staff report, “Precarious Slopes? The Great Recession, Federal Stimulus, and New Jersey Schools,” we examine how school finances were affected during the recession and the ARRA federal stimulus period. We find strong evidence of a significant decline—relative to trend—in school revenues and expenditures following the recession as well as key compositional changes that could affect school financing and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120201

The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-02-25)
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
On the Economy

Newsletter
Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession
Dynan, Karen E.; Dokko, Jane K.; Amromin, Gene (2020-06-30)
The Covid-19 public health crisis has sharply reduced the earnings of millions of U.S. households, following the severe curtailment of economic activity needed to contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, households continue to confront their ongoing financial obligations. The ability of households to manage these obligations has important consequences for the speed at which the U.S. economy can recover from the current crisis. Households that are wiped out financially in the coming months will not be in a position to strongly resume spending once the virus containment issues have passed. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 443

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