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Working Paper
Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison
This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on bond yields, stock prices and exchange rates. We use common methodologies for the four central banks, with daily and intradaily asset price data. We emphasize the use of intradaily data to identify the causal effect of monetary policy surprises. We find that these policies are effective in easing financial conditions when policy rates are stuck at the zero lower bound, apparently largely by reducing term premia.
Working Paper
U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies
We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
This paper argues that one cannot precisely estimate the persistence of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effects, especially with short samples and few observations. To make this point, we illustrate that the most influential model on the topic exhibits structural instability, and sensitivity to specification and outliers that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted models that respect more plausible asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. Estimates of the dynamic effects of shocks should respect the limited predictability in asset ...
Discussion Paper
The International Experience of Central Bank Asset Purchases and Inflation
Recent inflationary pressures in the global economy have rekindled the debate on the link between money growth and price stability. Specifically, does rapid central bank money creation resulting from large-scale purchases of government securities fuel inflationary spending by households and firms? We argue that there are many valid reasons to be skeptical about this textbook narrative. In this post, we look at the international experience with regard to asset purchases, money growth, and inflation dynamics in the pre-COVID era in an attempt to draw lessons from the recent past. Most notably, ...
Briefing
Domestic and foreign announcements on unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates
This brief studies the effects that announcements about unconventional monetary policies (large-scale asset purchases, refinancing operations, and forward guidance) have on nominal exchange rates. To this end, the authors use high-frequency intra-daily data and look at the variations in government future yields and in nominal exchange rates over a narrow window around the time of the announcements. They find that expansionary monetary policy shocks embedded in announcements made by the Federal Reserve depreciate the U. S. dollar. In contrast, the authors also find that similar unexpected ...
Working Paper
Mortgage Prepayment, Race, and Monetary Policy
This paper documents large differences in mortgage prepayment behavior across racial and ethnic groups in the United States, which have significant implications for monetary policy, inequality, and pricing. Using a novel data set that combines administrative data on mortgage performance with information on race and ethnicity, we show that Black and Hispanic white borrowers have significantly lower prepayment rates compared with Non-Hispanic white borrowers, holding income, credit score, and equity constant. This gap is on the order of 50 percent and largely reflects different sensitivities ...
Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Agency Mortgage REITs
We study how the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) influenced the behavior of Agency mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs)?a set of institutions identified by the Financial Stability Oversight Council as posing systemic risk. We document that Agency mortgage REITs: [i] equity prices reacted to QE announcements and in a manner consistent with their business prospects; [ii] grew markedly during QE2 and receded during QE3 in relation to the Federal Reserve's Agency MBS purchase activity; and [iii] increased their leverage during QE3. Our findings are consistent with ...
Journal Article
Time to Unwind
This fall, the Fed is taking initial steps to unwind a signature post-recession stimulus policy by trimming back its massive balance sheet.
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
The weight of the evidence indicates that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks had persistent effects on yields. To make this point, this paper illustrates that the most influential SVAR model of UMP effects, which implies transient effects, exhibits structural instability, sensitivity to specification and single observations that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted SVAR models that limit asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. This conclusion is consistent with evidence from micro studies, surveys of professional forecasters, ...
Speech
Negative nominal central bank policy rates: where is the lower bound?
Remarks at the University of Wisconsin.