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Working Paper
Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge ...
Working Paper
The Paper Trail of Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from Patent Interferences [REVISED]
REVISED 9/2019: We show evidence of localized knowledge spillovers using a new database of multiple invention from U.S. patent interferences terminated between 1998 and 2014. Patent interferences resulted when two or more independent parties simultaneously submitted identical claims of invention to the U.S. Patent Office. Following the idea that inventors of identical inventions share common knowledge inputs, interferences provide a new method for measuring spillovers of tacit knowledge compared with existing (and noisy) measures such as citation links. Using matched pairs of inventors to ...
The Rise of Cross-Border Patenting: Trends and Implications
Excluding China, foreign patent applications have narrowed the gap with domestic patent applications, suggesting a global trend toward cross-border patenting.
The Impact of Tax Differences on Intrafirm Patent Transactions
An analysis of global patent transfers found that international tax differences impact patent transactions between parent companies and foreign subsidiaries.
Working Paper
Synergizing Ventures
Venture capital (VC) and growth are examined both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VC-backed startups have higher early growth rates and initial patent quality than non-VC-backed ones. VC backing increases a startup's likelihood of reaching the right tails of the firm size and innovation distributions. Furthermore, outcomes are better for startups matched with more experienced venture capitalists. An endogenous growth model, where venture capitalists provide both expertise and financing for business startups, is constructed to match these facts. The presence of venture capital, the ...
Profit Shifting in the 21st Century: Multinationals’ Use of Intrafirm Patent Transfers
An analysis indicates that a high percentage of U.S. patents that shifted to tax havens like Bermuda are intrafirm transfers. Such transfers may be a tax avoidance strategy by multinationals.
Journal Article
Uneven Innovation in the U.S.
The San Jose and San Francisco areas don’t make the U.S. top 10 in terms of population, and they each contain merely 1% of the national workforce. But jointly they produce about 20% of all innovation output.
Working Paper
Bubbles and the Value of Innovation
Episodes of booming innovation coincide with intense speculation in financial markets leading to bubbles—increases in market valuations and firm creation followed by a crash. We provide a framework reproducing these facts that makes a rich set of predictions on how speculation changes both the private and social values of innovation. We confirm the theory in the universe of U.S. patents issued from 1926 through 2010. Measures based on financial market information indicate that speculation increases the private value of innovation and reduces negative spillovers to competing firms. No ...
Journal Article
The Rise of Asia as a Destination for U.S. Patenting
China has become one of the main destinations where U.S. inventors seek to protect their intellectual property.
East Asia Outpaces Other Regions in International Patenting
As foreign patenting continues to grow, East Asia has become both the main origin of innovations and the main destination for patent protection.