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Speech
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-20)
Presentation to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022,April 20, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Discussion Paper
Central Bank Solvency and Inflation
Del Negro, Marco; Sims, Christopher A. (2015-04-01)
The monetary base in the United States, defined as currency plus bank reserves, grew from about $800 billion in 2008 to $2 trillion in 2012, and to roughly $4 trillion at the end of 2014 (see chart below). Some commentators have viewed this increase in the monetary base as a sure harbinger of inflation. For example, one economist wrote that this “unprecedented expansion of the money supply could make the ’70s look benign.” These predictions of inflation rest on the monetarist argument that nominal income is proportional to the money supply. The fact that the money supply has expanded ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150401

Speech
Monetary policy in a low inflation and low unemployment economy: remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, May 21, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-05-21)
Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren explored the current economic environment, characterized by low unemployment and lower-than-target inflation ? which are somewhat opposing signals for monetary policymakers.
Speech , Paper 144

Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Neely, Christopher J. (2022-04-15)
The weight of the evidence indicates that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks had persistent effects on yields. To make this point, this paper illustrates that the most influential SVAR model of UMP effects, which implies transient effects, exhibits structural instability, sensitivity to specification and single observations that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted SVAR models that limit asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. This conclusion is consistent with evidence from micro studies, surveys of professional forecasters, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-004

Working Paper
Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Nunes, Ricardo; Ozdagli, Ali K.; Tang, Jenny (2022-01-01)
Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases. On these release dates, there are no pure policy shocks, which allows us to identify the impact of information shocks and thereby distill pure policy shocks from interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Our ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-2

Conference Paper
Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy: Economic Policy Symposium, August 27-28,2020
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank (2020-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Newsletter
Understanding Recent Fluctuations in Short-Term Interest Rates
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2019)
In mid-September 2019, there were sudden, large fluctuations in short-term interest rates. Why did these fluctuations happen, and what do they tell us about the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy toolkit?
Chicago Fed Letter

Discussion Paper
More Than Meets the Eye: Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy
Remache, Julie; Del Negro, Marco; McAndrews, James J. (2013-08-15)
In 2012, the Fed’s remittances to the U.S. Treasury amounted to $88.4 billion. The vast majority of these remittances originated as income from the SOMA portfolio (see the second post in this series for an account of the history of SOMA income). While net income has been high in recent years because of the Fed’s large balance sheet, it is likely to drop in the future as the Fed normalizes interest rates. This is because the Fed will likely face increased interest expense on its reserve balances and possibly realize losses in the case of asset sales. A recent paper by economists at the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130815

Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation
Armen, Alan; Koenig, Evan F. (2015-12)
This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Speech
We Can’t Afford Not To
Daly, Mary C. (2020-06-15)
Virtual Event at The National Press Club, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 15, 2020.
Speech

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